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The failed trade underscores the dangers of concentrated exposure to a single narrative. By allocating $23 million across correlated AI tokens without diversification or stop-losses, the investor amplified downside risk. As AI hype fades, markets are demanding real utility—not promises.
On-chain data shows losses across six AI agent tokens, including FAI (-92%), AIXBT (-84%), and NFTXBT (-99%). The whale’s wallet now holds less than $4,000 in remaining assets, making this one of the most severe single-investment collapses in recent crypto history.
Breakdown of losses across six AI agent tokens on Base blockchain. Source: Lookonchain
The massive whale loss is fueling concerns over a potential AI token bubble. Many AI agent projects launched on Base promise autonomous agents but lack working products. As sentiment fades, thin liquidity and unclear utility are accelerating sharp price crashes across the sector.
A crypto whale has lost $20.4 million after investing $23 million into AI agent tokens on the Base blockchain and exiting with just $2.58 million. The trade marks an 88.77% drawdown, with some tokens collapsing by more than 99%, highlighting the extreme risk in speculative AI narratives.
As Aave clears regulatory scrutiny, internal debates continue. DAO members recently raised concerns over a front-end change that may redirect swap fee revenue away from the DAO treasury. While Aave Labs says revenue sharing was voluntary, governance and value capture remain key issues as DeFi evolves.
AAVE briefly climbed following news that the SEC will not pursue enforcement against the protocol. The investigation began in 2021 during heightened crypto regulation, making the closure a confidence boost for investors—even as broader questions around governance remain unresolved.
AAVE Briefly Climbs After SEC’s Announcement. Source: CoinGecko
While the SEC ended its probe into Aave, it stressed that the closure does not equal exoneration and doesn’t rule out future action. Still, after years of scrutiny into crypto lending and governance tokens, the outcome marks a significant regulatory milestone for DeFi.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has officially closed its multi-year investigation into the Aave Protocol without recommending enforcement action. The decision removes a major regulatory overhang for one of DeFi’s largest lending platforms, offering relief to the broader decentralized finance sector.
FILUSDT.P is eyeing a bullish breakout on the 4-hour chart, with price rebounding from the downward trendline and support zone, converging with a potential entry area that could ignite upside momentum if buyers break resistance amid recent consolidation. This setup suggests a reversal opportunity after the downtrend, targeting higher levels with strong risk-reward.
Entry between 1.243–1.287 for a long position. Target at 1.700. Set a stop loss at 1.221, yielding a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:10. Monitor for confirmation via a bullish candle close above entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair's momentum post-rebound.
Trade Setup
Entry (Long):
1.243 – 1.287
Target:
• 1.700
Stop Loss:
• 1.221
️ Risk-to-Reward:
• ~ 1:6+ (very aggressive)
️ Risk Notes (Very Important)
This setup carries elevated risk due to:
• FIL’s historically high volatility
• Broader altcoin market sensitivity to BTC moves
• Thin liquidity compared to majors
Consider:
• Reduced position size
• Partial profits on the way up
• No over-leverage
• Strict respect of the stop loss
Your view?
Is FILUSDT forming a genuine base for a breakout toward 1.70 — or just another lower-high before continuation down? 
Looking back at ETH on the weekly timeframe, the broader picture is quite clear. After a strong rally that pushed price into the 4,800–5,000 zone, the market entered a necessary corrective phase. This pullback brought ETH down toward the 2.8k–3.0k area, right around the midpoint of the prior impulse leg. The way price has reacted suggests this is more of a pullback into a base for “rest and re-accumulation,” rather than the beginning of a new bearish cycle.
From an EMA perspective, ETH is currently trading below the EMA34 near 3,385 but has only pulled back modestly and continues to hover close to the EMA89 around 3,060. What stands out is that both EMA34 and EMA89 are starting to flatten, no longer sloping sharply lower. This often signals a transition from a fast corrective phase into a more balanced state, where supply and demand are temporarily finding equilibrium. Price consolidating around the EMA89 after a major advance typically reflects a pause to rebuild momentum, not a breakdown that leads to successive lower lows.
On the medium-term structure, the most recent low around 2.5k–2.6k remains clearly higher than the lows formed before ETH’s strong breakout, meaning the weekly higher-low structure is still intact. Recent weekly candles have relatively small bodies with balanced upper and lower wicks, while volume has been gradually declining. This is a familiar signature of a healthy correction, where profit-taking pressure has largely been absorbed and sellers no longer have enough conviction to push price significantly lower.
With this type of price behavior, the most appropriate view at this stage is that ETH is entering an accumulation phase around the 2.8k–3.2k range, while the broader trend still leans mildly bullish.
Wishing you successful trading!
Tilray (TLRY) shares jumped 30% following major political news. President Donald Trump announced plans to reclassify cannabis as a Schedule III drug. Additionally, a new pilot program may allow seniors to buy cannabis through Medicare. The stock has now doubled since its December lows. This analysis breaks down why this matters for your portfolio across key sectors.
Geopolitics and Strategy: The Policy Pivot
The U.S. government is changing its strategic stance on cannabis. President Trump’s potential executive order signals a massive shift in federal law. Moving cannabis to "Schedule III" lowers its legal severity. This aligns the U.S. with other progressive nations. For Tilray, this removes the constant fear of federal prosecution. It creates a safer environment for institutional investors to enter the market.
Economics: Tax and Banking Freedom
Reclassification solves two major economic problems for Tilray. Currently, cannabis companies pay extremely high taxes because of "Section 280E." This rule prevents them from deducting normal business expenses. Schedule III status removes this burden. It instantly improves cash flow and profitability. Furthermore, it opens access to traditional banking services, reducing the cost of doing business.
Business Models: The Senior Market
The proposed Medicare pilot program is a game-changer. It allows the government to subsidize cannabis for seniors. This creates a stable, guaranteed revenue stream for Tilray. Seniors often use these products for pain relief and health. This shifts the business model from recreational use to "medical necessity." A government-backed customer base is highly reliable and lucrative.
Science and Innovation: Research Growth
Strict laws previously blocked scientific research. Reclassification makes Research and Development (R&D) much easier. Tilray can now study cannabis compounds more freely. This accelerates the creation of new medical products. Patent analysis suggests this will lead to proprietary formulas. Owning exclusive medical patents creates a "moat" that protects Tilray from competitors.
Market Data: What Traders Are Betting
Options traders expect huge volatility. Data shows traders are pricing in a 50% move by March 2026. The target price in this bullish scenario is $21.22. This means investors are willing to bet money that the stock will rise significantly. Sentiment is aggressive and optimistic.
Technical Analysis: The Trend is Up
The stock chart confirms the positive news. Tilray is trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. These are key lines that determine the trend direction. When the price is above them, the trend is "Bullish" (upward). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, showing the rally has room to grow.
Conclusion: Wall Street’s Verdict
Analysts rate Tilray as a "Moderate Buy." Price targets reach as high as $25, suggesting a potential 75% gain. The combination of tax relief, new senior customers, and technical momentum makes a strong case. However, the move depends on the Executive Order becoming law. Investors should watch for official confirmation from the White House.
BTC/USD – H4 MARKET ANALYSIS
Current Market Structure
Bitcoin has completed a sharp bearish impulse and is now reacting from a clearly defined support zone. The strong sell-off flushed liquidity below the previous range, followed by an immediate bounce a typical sign of demand absorption rather than trend continuation to the downside.
At the moment, price is transitioning into a recovery phase, but the structure remains corrective, not impulsive yet.
Key Zones & Market Positioning
Support Zone: ~85,300 – 85,900 → Strong demand area where buyers stepped in aggressively
Target 1: ~87,900 → First reaction level / prior structure resistance
Target 2: ~89,900 → Range high / key liquidity pool
Target 3: ~94,000 – 95,000 → Major resistance & supply zone (higher timeframe)
Price Action & Liquidity Behavior
Summary
Bitcoin is not collapsing.
It is stabilizing, absorbing liquidity, and preparing for a potential multi-leg recovery.
As long as the support zone holds, the roadmap remains clear:
Demand → Recovery → Targets expansion.
Entry: $184–186.5
SL: $169.9
TP: $195.5–202
Risk: 1%
Long from the local 4h base around the daily demand zone 178–185 after a liquidity sweep below 180 and successful defense of support, targeting a rebound into the upper bullish FVGs and supply zone at 195.6–202+, with potential extension toward the higher cluster $208–220.
Fundamental driver: Aave controls ~72% of the crypto lending market, generates about $90M in monthly revenue and is widening its lead over Spark; whales have added 50k+ AAVE over the last 30 days and now hold an all‑time high of 3.98M tokens, continuing to buy into dips, while one major address is repeatedly using recursive borrowing to accumulate more AAVE. The SEC has officially closed its investigation and did not classify AAVE as a security, removing a key regulatory overhang and opening room for repricing a DeFi blue chip whose tokenomics actually capture protocol fees and value (unlike cases such as Plasma). The setup is counter to the local “total bearish” EMA regime, so execution should be via lower‑TF reaction and partial entries within the range, with staggered profit‑taking at liquidation clusters and FVGs; the idea is fully invalidated on a sustained break below $170 and a clean loss of trend support.
That depends on the timeframe. From a trading perspective, the buy looks poorly timed. From a long-term strategy, MicroStrategy doesn’t aim to time the market—its focus is on accumulation. The decision’s success now hinges on whether Bitcoin stabilizes or continues to face macro pressure.
MicroStrategy shares fell over 25% in five days, underperforming Bitcoin itself. The company’s mNAV compressed to around 1.11, meaning the stock now trades only slightly above the value of its Bitcoin holdings, amplifying investor sensitivity to BTC price swings.
The decline wasn’t driven by spot selling. It was fueled by macro pressure, including fears of a Bank of Japan rate hike, leverage liquidations, and market-maker de-risking. This type of structural deleveraging has historically led to sharp, short-term Bitcoin drawdowns.
MicroStrategy bought 10,645 BTC at ~$92,098 just before Bitcoin dropped sharply below $85,000. While the long-term position remains profitable, the timing raised concerns as the purchase quickly went underwater on paper amid a broader macro-driven sell-off.
Cantor argues Hyperliquid’s deepest strength is liquidity. Even a 1% market share gain from centralized exchanges could add $600 billion in trading volume and $270 million in annual fees. The bank also initiated Overweight ratings on Hyperliquid-linked treasuries, signaling growing institutional confidence despite HYPE trading well below its highs.
Unlike speculative crypto forecasts, Cantor frames Hyperliquid as core market infrastructure, comparable to global exchanges. The protocol has already processed nearly $3 trillion in volume in 2025, generating $874 million in fees—most of which are returned to token holders through buybacks and burns.
Cantor Fitzgerald has released a 62-page research report projecting Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could reach a $200 billion market cap within 10 years. The model assumes $5 billion in annual revenue and a 50x earnings multiple, signaling a rare and serious Wall Street valuation of decentralized exchange infrastructure.
