Albania just took a historic step in digital governance: Prime Minister Edi Rama introduced “Diella,” the world’s first AI-powered cabinet member, to help keep government procurement “100% free of corruption” and accelerate public services.

What Diella Does

Procurement Oversight: Diella’s core job is to supervise all government purchases of goods and services — a sector long plagued by corruption scandals.

Digital Services: Built on the e-Albania platform, Diella has already issued 36,600+ digital documents and delivered nearly 1,000 services, from driver’s licenses to pension applications and court filings.

Voice & Automation: Citizens can use voice commands to request state documents, which arrive with electronic stamps, cutting down on paperwork and delays.

Accountability Questions

Rama praised Diella as “the first cabinet member who isn’t physically present, but is virtually created by AI,” yet key details remain unclear:

Who is responsible if the AI makes mistakes?

How will human oversight be maintained?

What safeguards prevent manipulation or bias in procurement decisions?

These governance issues will shape how successfully Albania integrates an AI politician into real government work.

Broader Context: AI Meets Politics

Diella joins a small but growing list of AI public figures:

Ukraine’s “Victoria Shi” debuted in 2024 as an AI spokesperson for foreign affairs.

Other nations are experimenting with AI in municipal decision-making and citizen services.

This signals a new frontier for AI in statecraft, where bots don’t just assist—they govern.

Why It Matters for Albania

Corruption History: Albania has struggled with high-profile corruption cases, including convictions of former ministers and ongoing investigations of city and party leaders.

EU Membership Goal: Persistent corruption has slowed Albania’s bid to join the European Union since 2014. Rama hopes the AI-driven transparency push could help meet EU standards by 2030.

Key Takeaways

Digital First: Diella is not a symbolic chatbot—it already handles nationwide government services.

Anti-Corruption Mission: Oversight of procurement puts it at the heart of Albania’s clean-government effort.

Global Significance: This could set a precedent for other countries exploring AI as official political actors.

Bottom line: Albania just blurred the line between technology and governance. If Diella succeeds, it might redefine what it means to hold public office in the AI era.

Former FTX chief Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, who is serving a 25-year federal sentence, will get his first major day in court since sentencing when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hears oral arguments on Nov. 4.

Why This Hearing Matters

Appeal Filed: SBF’s legal team filed a notice of appeal in April 2024, arguing the trial was unfair, claiming he was “never presumed innocent” and that prosecutors falsely portrayed FTX customer funds as permanently lost.

Possible Outcomes: A successful appeal could mean a new trial or a revised sentence, while a rejection would leave the current 25-year term in place.

From Bail to Federal Prison

FTX Collapse: The exchange imploded in November 2022, leading to a high-profile New York trial in late 2023.

Bail Revoked: Initially out on bond at his parents’ California home, SBF was jailed in August 2023 after allegations of witness intimidation.

Current Status: Since March 2024 he has been housed at FCI Terminal Island in California, with an expected release date of Oct. 25, 2044.

Key Figures Around the Case

Caroline Ellison (ex-Alameda CEO): pleaded guilty, sentenced to 2 years, release expected March 2026.

Gary Wang & Nishad Singh: cooperated and were sentenced to time served.

Ryan Salame: after a failed attempt to withdraw his plea, received 7+ years and reported to prison in Oct 2024.

Political Angle & Speculation

Pardon Rumors: Some reports suggest SBF could seek a presidential pardon. Early in 2025 President Donald Trump pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, fueling speculation, though no official indication exists that SBF will receive similar consideration.

What to Watch Next

November 4 Appeal Hearing – arguments before the Second Circuit could set the tone for a possible retrial or sentence change.

Remaining FTX-Linked Cases – including unresolved matters tied to other executives and partners.

Regulatory Fallout – the FTX collapse continues to influence crypto exchange oversight and investor-protection policy worldwide.

Bottom line: Sam Bankman-Fried’s legal battle is far from over. The November hearing could be the pivotal moment determining whether his 25-year sentence stands—or the case heads back to court for another round.

Former FTX chief Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, who is serving a 25-year federal sentence, will get his first major day in court since sentencing when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hears oral arguments on Nov. 4.

Why This Hearing Matters

Appeal Filed: SBF’s legal team filed a notice of appeal in April 2024, arguing the trial was unfair, claiming he was “never presumed innocent” and that prosecutors falsely portrayed FTX customer funds as permanently lost.

Possible Outcomes: A successful appeal could mean a new trial or a revised sentence, while a rejection would leave the current 25-year term in place.

From Bail to Federal Prison

FTX Collapse: The exchange imploded in November 2022, leading to a high-profile New York trial in late 2023.

Bail Revoked: Initially out on bond at his parents’ California home, SBF was jailed in August 2023 after allegations of witness intimidation.

Current Status: Since March 2024 he has been housed at FCI Terminal Island in California, with an expected release date of Oct. 25, 2044.

Key Figures Around the Case

Caroline Ellison (ex-Alameda CEO): pleaded guilty, sentenced to 2 years, release expected March 2026.

Gary Wang & Nishad Singh: cooperated and were sentenced to time served.

Ryan Salame: after a failed attempt to withdraw his plea, received 7+ years and reported to prison in Oct 2024.

Political Angle & Speculation

Pardon Rumors: Some reports suggest SBF could seek a presidential pardon. Early in 2025 President Donald Trump pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, fueling speculation, though no official indication exists that SBF will receive similar consideration.

What to Watch Next

November 4 Appeal Hearing – arguments before the Second Circuit could set the tone for a possible retrial or sentence change.

Remaining FTX-Linked Cases – including unresolved matters tied to other executives and partners.

Regulatory Fallout – the FTX collapse continues to influence crypto exchange oversight and investor-protection policy worldwide.

Bottom line: Sam Bankman-Fried’s legal battle is far from over. The November hearing could be the pivotal moment determining whether his 25-year sentence stands—or the case heads back to court for another round.

Metaverse-related NFT sales climbed 27% in August compared to July, signaling that people may be “slowly sneaking back into virtual worlds,” according to a new DappRadar report.

$6.5M trading volume was recorded across 13,927 sales.

July saw $6.7M and 10,900 sales, a big jump from June’s $3.7M and 12,800 sales.

Analyst Sara Gherghelas said the numbers prove the “metaverse isn’t dead yet.”

Top Platforms Building for the Long Term ️

Leading virtual worlds are focusing on infrastructure and creator tools:

The Sandbox held its largest Land auction in July.

Mocaverse is preparing to launch Moca Chain, with a testnet expected soon.

Otherside by Yuga Labs released AI-powered world-building tools.

Decentraland announced a major engine upgrade.

HYTOPIA replaced its TOPIA token with HYBUX and expanded its creator fund.

Big Picture

January still leads 2025 with $7.7M in metaverse NFT sales.

April and May remain top months for trading volume (19,000+ each).

Companies like Infinite Reality (with Napster) and DTTM Operations (Trump’s metaverse trademark plans) continue to build new metaverse projects.

Despite lower dollar volumes than during the 2021–22 hype, core builders are investing in infrastructure and identity tools, pointing toward steady long-term growth.

“While volumes remain modest, leading platforms are laying the foundation for the next phase of virtual worlds,” Gherghelas concluded.

Metaverse-related NFT sales climbed 27% in August compared to July, signaling that people may be “slowly sneaking back into virtual worlds,” according to a new DappRadar report.

$6.5M trading volume was recorded across 13,927 sales.

July saw $6.7M and 10,900 sales, a big jump from June’s $3.7M and 12,800 sales.

Analyst Sara Gherghelas said the numbers prove the “metaverse isn’t dead yet.”

Top Platforms Building for the Long Term ️

Leading virtual worlds are focusing on infrastructure and creator tools:

The Sandbox held its largest Land auction in July.

Mocaverse is preparing to launch Moca Chain, with a testnet expected soon.

Otherside by Yuga Labs released AI-powered world-building tools.

Decentraland announced a major engine upgrade.

HYTOPIA replaced its TOPIA token with HYBUX and expanded its creator fund.

Big Picture

January still leads 2025 with $7.7M in metaverse NFT sales.

April and May remain top months for trading volume (19,000+ each).

Companies like Infinite Reality (with Napster) and DTTM Operations (Trump’s metaverse trademark plans) continue to build new metaverse projects.

Despite lower dollar volumes than during the 2021–22 hype, core builders are investing in infrastructure and identity tools, pointing toward steady long-term growth.

“While volumes remain modest, leading platforms are laying the foundation for the next phase of virtual worlds,” Gherghelas concluded.

Metaverse-related NFT sales climbed 27% in August compared to July, signaling that people may be “slowly sneaking back into virtual worlds,” according to a new DappRadar report.

$6.5M trading volume was recorded across 13,927 sales.

July saw $6.7M and 10,900 sales, a big jump from June’s $3.7M and 12,800 sales.

Analyst Sara Gherghelas said the numbers prove the “metaverse isn’t dead yet.”

Top Platforms Building for the Long Term ️

Leading virtual worlds are focusing on infrastructure and creator tools:

The Sandbox held its largest Land auction in July.

Mocaverse is preparing to launch Moca Chain, with a testnet expected soon.

Otherside by Yuga Labs released AI-powered world-building tools.

Decentraland announced a major engine upgrade.

HYTOPIA replaced its TOPIA token with HYBUX and expanded its creator fund.

Big Picture

January still leads 2025 with $7.7M in metaverse NFT sales.

April and May remain top months for trading volume (19,000+ each).

Companies like Infinite Reality (with Napster) and DTTM Operations (Trump’s metaverse trademark plans) continue to build new metaverse projects.

Despite lower dollar volumes than during the 2021–22 hype, core builders are investing in infrastructure and identity tools, pointing toward steady long-term growth.

“While volumes remain modest, leading platforms are laying the foundation for the next phase of virtual worlds,” Gherghelas concluded.

​​If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably had one of those weeks where you take 15 trades, stress over every tick, barely sleep – and somehow, your P&L ends up red anyway.

Meanwhile, someone in your Discord chat casually posts their “one trade of the week” that banked more than your entire month.

The difference? They understand risk-reward ratios (unless they’re social-media influencers and have a course to sell). The ones that get risk-reward ratios right aren’t trading more, they’re trading less, better.

And that’s what we’re diving into today: how to use risk-reward to stop overtrading, focus on higher-quality setups, and finally give your capital the respect (and break) it deserves.

What Risk-Reward Really Means

At its core, the risk-reward ratio (RRR) tells you how much you’re willing to lose compared to how much you aim to gain. But don’t let the simplicity fool you – mastering this concept separates the true traders from the exit liquidity.

Say you’re risking $100 to make $300. That’s a 1:3 risk-reward ratio – for every $1 on the line, you’re targeting $3 in return.

The beauty is, you don’t need to be right most of the time to make money. At a 1:3 ratio, you can lose six trades out of ten and still come out ahead. That flips the game from “I need to be right” to “I just need to manage risk.”

But, believe it or not, most traders do the opposite. They risk $300 to make $100, cut winners too early, and widen stops when trades go south. That’s not risk management; that’s donation season.

Why This Isn’t Just About Math

Risk-reward ratios look clean on paper, but in real life, psychology can ruin everything.

Picture this:
You plan a beautiful 1:3 setup.
The trade starts working, you’re up 1R, and you panic.
You close early “just to lock in profits.”
If you’ve been around for a while, you’ve heard the saying “You never go broke taking profits.” True. But cutting winners early might mean missing out, hitting your goals slower or not hitting them at all.

Pro tip: once you’re up 1R, consider putting a stop at breakeven and let your take profit stay where you set it initially.

Because there’s a flip side, too. When trades go against you, emotions tell you to give it a little more room. You move your stop. Then you move it again. Suddenly, your carefully planned 1:3 trade becomes a 3:1 loser.

This is where discipline comes in. A risk-reward plan only works if you have the discipline to stick to it. Otherwise, you’re trading vibes, not setups.

The Sweet Spot for Most Traders

There’s no universal “best” ratio, but for most retail traders these setups work fine:
Day traders often aim for around 1:1 to 1:2
Swing traders typically prefer 1:3 to 1:4
Position traders can stretch to 1:5 or higher
Why? Higher timeframes give price more space to breathe. If you’re scalping, you can’t realistically aim for a 1:5 setup unless you enjoy watching charts like they’re Netflix and crying when spreads eat your edge.

But here’s where traders mess up: Instead of finding setups that naturally offer good ratios, they force them. They shrink stops to chase a flashy 1:6 RRR and end up getting wicked out by noise. Quality setups beat aggressive plays more often than not.

Asymmetric Risk-Return: The Home Run Setup

Let’s talk about asymmetric bets – trades where the upside massively outweighs the downside. Think 1:10, 1:15, or even 1:20 setups.

These are rare, but they’re game-changers when they hit.

Imagine risking $100 with a tight stop on a breakout setup. If price pops and you catch the move early, you could ride it for $1,500 or more. That’s a 15R trade – the kind that can pay for weeks, sometimes months, of smaller losses.

Here’s a recent example in

GBPUSD
. The pair hit a double top in mid-August and immediately reversed, piercing the $1.3590 (a prior peak) by just 5 pips. Say you spotted that double-top formation and shorted with a 10-pip stop.

You’d survive the rise and then enjoy a 200-pip reward. That’s 20R in the bag, provided you exited right before the trend turned.

But here’s the trade-off:
You’ll get stopped out more often.
You need patience to let the winners actually run.
You have to accept discomfort – watching price retrace without panic-selling your position.
The market sharpshooters who master asymmetric setups don’t chase them every day. They stalk clean breakouts, major trend reversals, or high-conviction catalysts – and when the trade lines up, they size big, set a tight stop, and let the probabilities do the heavy lifting.

It’s less about being right every time and more about letting one big win offset multiple small losses.

🧩 Making Risk-Reward Work for You

Understanding ratios isn’t enough. You need a process:
Start with risk first
Decide how much you’re okay losing per trade – most pros cap it at 1–2% of account size.
Find logical stops, not emotional ones
Set stops based on structure – below support, above resistance, or at levels where your idea is simply wrong.
Set realistic targets
Don’t dream of 1:10 on a choppy Tuesday unless there’s a major catalyst to back it up.
Let math guide position sizing
Smaller stops mean larger position sizes for the same risk, but stay consistent with your capital exposure.
By planning before you enter, you flip the game from guessing to executing. That’s when risk-reward stops being theory and starts being strategy.

Risk-Reward in Different Market Conditions

Markets change character, and your RRR should adapt too.
In strong trending markets, you can aim for bigger ratios since momentum carries trades further.
In range-bound conditions, scaling back to 1:1.5 or 1:2 makes sense – breakouts fail more often.
During news-heavy weeks, either widen stops or stay flat if you’re risk-averse. Chasing trades when Powell’s mic is on? Risky business.
The smart traders bend their risk-reward ratios based on volatility instead of forcing the same plan everywhere.

️ Trade Less, Profit More

Here’s the counterintuitive truth: the fewer trades you take, the more money you’ll likely make. In other words, less is more.

Focusing on high-quality setups with favorable RRRs means:
Less noise
Less overtrading
More time for actual analysis instead of gambling
You don’t need to catch every move. Stick to your RRR strategy, take care of the losses, and let profits take care of themselves.

The TradingView Edge

This is where tools make life easier:
Use Supercharts to visualize risk-reward zones before you enter.
Once inside a chart, navigate to the left-hand toolbar and spot the icon where it says Projection. Pick Long position for long risk-reward ratio, and Short position for short risk-reward ratio. Here’s a helpful tutorial in case you need some guidance.
Set alerts at key levels so you’re not glued to your screen.
Scan with screeners to find setups with volatility and structure that match your target ratios. heatmaps can help, too.
And finally, check out the newest product we launched, Fundamental Graphs, allowing you to compare plenty of metrics across multiple companies (we’re talking earnings, cash flows, net income, revenue, all that good stuff).
The Takeaway

Risk-reward ratios aren’t a thing to consider – they’re a pillar of profitable trading. You don’t need to predict the market perfectly; you need to structure your trades so that your wins pay for your losses, and then some.

For most traders, the shift is simple:
Stop chasing every setup.
Start filtering for trades where the upside dwarfs the downside.
And when you get the rare asymmetric winner, ride it like your P&L depends on it – because it does.

If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably had one of those weeks where you take 15 trades, stress over every tick, barely sleep – and somehow, your P&L ends up red anyway.

Meanwhile, someone in your Discord chat casually posts their “one trade of the week” that banked more than your entire month.

The difference? They understand risk-reward ratios (unless they’re social-media influencers and have a course to sell). The ones that get risk-reward ratios right aren’t trading more, they’re trading less, better.

And that’s what we’re diving into today: how to use risk-reward to stop overtrading, focus on higher-quality setups, and finally give your capital the respect (and break) it deserves.

What Risk-Reward Really Means

At its core, the risk-reward ratio (RRR) tells you how much you’re willing to lose compared to how much you aim to gain. But don’t let the simplicity fool you – mastering this concept separates the true traders from the exit liquidity.

Say you’re risking $100 to make $300. That’s a 1:3 risk-reward ratio – for every $1 on the line, you’re targeting $3 in return.

The beauty is, you don’t need to be right most of the time to make money. At a 1:3 ratio, you can lose six trades out of ten and still come out ahead. That flips the game from “I need to be right” to “I just need to manage risk.”

But, believe it or not, most traders do the opposite. They risk $300 to make $100, cut winners too early, and widen stops when trades go south. That’s not risk management; that’s donation season.

Why This Isn’t Just About Math

Risk-reward ratios look clean on paper, but in real life, psychology can ruin everything.

Picture this:
You plan a beautiful 1:3 setup.
The trade starts working, you’re up 1R, and you panic.
You close early “just to lock in profits.”
If you’ve been around for a while, you’ve heard the saying “You never go broke taking profits.” True. But cutting winners early might mean missing out, hitting your goals slower or not hitting them at all.

Pro tip: once you’re up 1R, consider putting a stop at breakeven and let your take profit stay where you set it initially.

Because there’s a flip side, too. When trades go against you, emotions tell you to give it a little more room. You move your stop. Then you move it again. Suddenly, your carefully planned 1:3 trade becomes a 3:1 loser.

This is where discipline comes in. A risk-reward plan only works if you have the discipline to stick to it. Otherwise, you’re trading vibes, not setups.

The Sweet Spot for Most Traders

There’s no universal “best” ratio, but for most retail traders these setups work fine:
Day traders often aim for around 1:1 to 1:2
Swing traders typically prefer 1:3 to 1:4
Position traders can stretch to 1:5 or higher
Why? Higher timeframes give price more space to breathe. If you’re scalping, you can’t realistically aim for a 1:5 setup unless you enjoy watching charts like they’re Netflix and crying when spreads eat your edge.

But here’s where traders mess up: Instead of finding setups that naturally offer good ratios, they force them. They shrink stops to chase a flashy 1:6 RRR and end up getting wicked out by noise. Quality setups beat aggressive plays more often than not.

Asymmetric Risk-Return: The Home Run Setup

Let’s talk about asymmetric bets – trades where the upside massively outweighs the downside. Think 1:10, 1:15, or even 1:20 setups.

These are rare, but they’re game-changers when they hit.

Imagine risking $100 with a tight stop on a breakout setup. If price pops and you catch the move early, you could ride it for $1,500 or more. That’s a 15R trade – the kind that can pay for weeks, sometimes months, of smaller losses.

Here’s a recent example in

GBPUSD
. The pair hit a double top in mid-August and immediately reversed, piercing the $1.3590 (a prior peak) by just 5 pips. Say you spotted that double-top formation and shorted with a 10-pip stop.

You’d survive the rise and then enjoy a 200-pip reward. That’s 20R in the bag, provided you exited right before the trend turned.

But here’s the trade-off:
You’ll get stopped out more often.
You need patience to let the winners actually run.
You have to accept discomfort – watching price retrace without panic-selling your position.
The market sharpshooters who master asymmetric setups don’t chase them every day. They stalk clean breakouts, major trend reversals, or high-conviction catalysts – and when the trade lines up, they size big, set a tight stop, and let the probabilities do the heavy lifting.

It’s less about being right every time and more about letting one big win offset multiple small losses.

🧩 Making Risk-Reward Work for You

Understanding ratios isn’t enough. You need a process:
Start with risk first
Decide how much you’re okay losing per trade – most pros cap it at 1–2% of account size.
Find logical stops, not emotional ones
Set stops based on structure – below support, above resistance, or at levels where your idea is simply wrong.
Set realistic targets
Don’t dream of 1:10 on a choppy Tuesday unless there’s a major catalyst to back it up.
Let math guide position sizing
Smaller stops mean larger position sizes for the same risk, but stay consistent with your capital exposure.
By planning before you enter, you flip the game from guessing to executing. That’s when risk-reward stops being theory and starts being strategy.

Risk-Reward in Different Market Conditions

Markets change character, and your RRR should adapt too.
In strong trending markets, you can aim for bigger ratios since momentum carries trades further.
In range-bound conditions, scaling back to 1:1.5 or 1:2 makes sense – breakouts fail more often.
During news-heavy weeks, either widen stops or stay flat if you’re risk-averse. Chasing trades when Powell’s mic is on? Risky business.
The smart traders bend their risk-reward ratios based on volatility instead of forcing the same plan everywhere.

️ Trade Less, Profit More

Here’s the counterintuitive truth: the fewer trades you take, the more money you’ll likely make. In other words, less is more.

Focusing on high-quality setups with favorable RRRs means:
Less noise
Less overtrading
More time for actual analysis instead of gambling
You don’t need to catch every move. Stick to your RRR strategy, take care of the losses, and let profits take care of themselves.

The TradingView Edge

This is where tools make life easier:
Use Supercharts to visualize risk-reward zones before you enter.
Once inside a chart, navigate to the left-hand toolbar and spot the icon where it says Projection. Pick Long position for long risk-reward ratio, and Short position for short risk-reward ratio. Here’s a helpful tutorial in case you need some guidance.
Set alerts at key levels so you’re not glued to your screen.
Scan with screeners to find setups with volatility and structure that match your target ratios. heatmaps can help, too.
And finally, check out the newest product we launched, Fundamental Graphs, allowing you to compare plenty of metrics across multiple companies (we’re talking earnings, cash flows, net income, revenue, all that good stuff).
The Takeaway

Risk-reward ratios aren’t a thing to consider – they’re a pillar of profitable trading. You don’t need to predict the market perfectly; you need to structure your trades so that your wins pay for your losses, and then some.

For most traders, the shift is simple:
Stop chasing every setup.
Start filtering for trades where the upside dwarfs the downside.
And when you get the rare asymmetric winner, ride it like your P&L depends on it – because it does.

** What the next 12 months will look like **

Let’s just start with a strong provocative title to raise the blood pressure.. “The end of Bitcoin”

…. with an explosion and then a slow erosion of relevance, that’s how.

Whether it withers through regulation, succumbs to its own technological limits, or is simply eclipsed by something faster, greener, and more useful, the end of Bitcoin will be a quiet fading of a once radical idea into the background hum of history over the next 12 years.

Can already feel the calls for his head. Take a breath, unclinch your fits, consider the possibility for a moment.

For years Bitcoin stood as a monument to a digital rebellion, a currency without borders or masters promising freedom from central banks and governments alike. Yet the freedom that was marvelled on Bitcoin’s launch was equally celebrated on its loss the day the ETF was active. A currency available to all they chanted, now controlled by the few. The irony.

Diminishing returns
The bitcoin Halving cycles are a great place to start on the story of “How Bitcoin ends”. Bitcoin maximalists will themselves acknowledge this technical observation, post cycle returns are not only diminishing but on the road to disappear forever. It is the reason we've seen 2010-2012 wallets unload on the market those past 2 months. They know.

On the above 2 week chart it is fairly evident the momentum of each cycle is losing steam as the line of support rotates another hour of the clock face for every two cycles. The next halving cycle will complete at 3 o’clock with no measurable return from the 2025 cycle top. Consider that as the talking heads call for $1m+ by 2030.

The influencers and 40 days
Have you noticed influencers talk about the amazing things quarter 4 will bring? “October through December to mint millionaires!” The cringe.

At the height of every market top we see the same smoke and mirrors, “New paradigm” shift mantra. Every other day a new News article on crypto, ft.com is full of them. All red flags as the market top grows closer. Although euphoria is still to return, the time until the top is deterministic.

There’s never been a market top post halving (vertical blue lines) greater than 546 days (vertical orange lines). This value also includes the +/- 5 days price trades at the peak. The last two cycles (2017 and 2021) took 526 days to reach the peak. 2021 gave traders an additional 20 days to exit at the peak. Few accepted while the rest signed up for the 2 year bag holding challenge.

The market top is now between September 28th to October 20th, at most 40 days away from today, if you’re reading this on September 10th, 2025. Yes, perhaps this time will be different, however there’s now 3 out of 4 cycles with less than 546 days (at max) until the cycle top, and the Bitcoin bull market is approaching that value fast. Is this time really going to be different? Influencers certainly think so.

PS: Notice the monthly reduction in market peaks? 2017 = December, 2021 = November, 2025 = October!

40 days / October 20th to $160k - Seriously?
Historical halving to market peaks

2012 Halving: +9,300% to $1,150 in November 2013

2016 Halving: +2,930% to $19,700 in December 2017

2020 Halving: +702% to $69,000 in November 2021

Lower limit
*** 2024 Halving: +160% to $160k in October 2025 ***
Upper limt
*** 2024 Halving: +180% to $180k in October 2025 ***

There’s a whole host of reasons or should I say confluence for this price action forecast too numerous to go into detail. However here’s a couple of standout reasons:

Reason 1
Each new cycle’s return is roughly ~25–30% of the prior cycle’s return. This means the halving to peak return is compressing by a fairly consistent factor in each cycle, close to a “quartering” effect. For this reason the 2025 market top falls between $160k to $180k.

It would also mean the end of Bitcoin as the next cycle peak would be a macro lower high. Consider a cycle 5 (2028 halving) with ~25% of Cycle 4’s return: 25% × 170% ≈ 40–45% return from the 2028 halving to its peak.

A market correction beginning in October 2025 for a new bear market would not be over until the $40-50k area. A 40% return in cycle 5 peaks out at $70k after the 2028 halving, a macro lower high! Remember talking heads are calling for $1m and beyond 2 years later.

If that becomes true, Bitcoin has entered a confirmed macro multi year bear market. A bear market just as long as the bull market from 2010. Such a bear market would not see price action arrested until around $6k in 2039! A long way from Michael Saylor’s $13 million per coin in 2045.

Welcome to the Ponzi scheme.

Reason 2
The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been an excellent marker for the cycle top, as were previous extensions in previous cycle tops. The market will always react to Fibonacci extensions regardless. Even if you believe Bitcoin will continue to print higher highs and 2026 is going to a very green year for price action.. you must accept price action will react strongly with those extensions, it always has.

But there’s more…. the 1.618 extension for this cycle shares confluence with point number 1. Yes, the quarterly reduction in return forecast of 160% for this Halving is also the 1.618. Dazzled? You should be!

There are many other studies for considering this level as the market top, which is discussed elsewhere.

Conclusions
If history continues to rhyme, the next 40 days may mark not only the top of this cycle, but also the start of Bitcoin’s long fade into irrelevance. A projected move to the $160k–$180k range would appear spectacular on headlines, yet within the broader arc of Bitcoin’s halving mechanics, it represents nothing more than the final gasp of exponential returns before the math itself runs out of road.

Each halving cycle has delivered progressively weaker gains, compressing the dream from life-changing multiples to mere percentages. At this trajectory, the next cycle risks producing a macro lower high, the first true sign of a terminal bear market. Beyond that lies the possibility of decades-long decline, where the legend of “digital gold” becomes just another case study in market psychology and technological obsolescence.

The irony is inescapable: what was once celebrated as unshackled freedom from centralised control now trades under the thumb of ETFs, influencers, and institutional flows. The rebellion has been monetised, the revolution syndicated. If October 2025 plays out as expected, we will look back not at the rise of Bitcoin to a million dollars per coin, but at its slow descent into being just another ticker on the screen, remembered more for what it symbolised than for what it ever achieved.

Political memecoins — crypto tokens themed around real politicians or campaigns — are thriving in 2025. They rarely offer utility; instead, they trade on narratives and community sentiment, spiking during election news cycles. Most launch on Solana or Ethereum, often via low-cost platforms like Pump.fun, which enable thousands of quick, speculative token launches.

Trump-Centric Memecoins: Big Names, Bigger Volatility

Three Trump-linked crypto stories illustrate how politics and memes collide:

1️⃣ TRUMP token (Solana)

Launched just before the 2025 inauguration.

Reached multibillion-dollar valuations and offered VIP perks like dinners and merchandise.

Price swings remain extreme, tied to news and Trump-branded marketing.

2️⃣ DJT rumor cycle (2024)

A separate Solana token surged on false speculation of Trump family ties.

Collapsed when no onchain links or campaign statements confirmed the rumor.

Lesson: Always verify official wallets or announcements.

3️⃣ World Liberty Financial (WLFI, 2025)

Debuted in early September with heavy trading volume.

Media suggested Trump family wallets held ~25% of supply, but lockup and distribution details remain unclear.

Price whipsawed from ~$0.30 to the low $0.20s before partial recovery.

Did you know? During the DJT rumor peak, more than 200 Trump-branded tokens appeared across Solana, BNB Chain and Ethereum within a single week.

️ California’s Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL)

Political memecoins must also navigate California’s new crypto compliance rules, which will matter to exchanges, promoters and liquidity providers that serve state residents.

DFAL (AB 39 & SB 401) covers exchange, transfer and custodial services.

Licensing start date: July 1, 2026 (extended by AB 1934).

Enforcement has already begun: on June 25, 2025, the DFPI issued its first DFAL action — a $300,000 penalty and $51,700 restitution against Coinme.

Any platform or promoter involved with political tokens touching California users should expect truthful marketing, licensing obligations and consumer-protection standards.

️ Political Satire Meets Web3

At Politico’s Sacramento Summit (August 2025), Governor Gavin Newsom jokingly floated a “Trump Corruption Coin.”

Framed as political satire, not a real token.

Meant as commentary on Trump’s embrace of crypto-themed branding.

No contract, chain or timeline exists — but the idea shows how political messaging now mimics crypto memes.

Fun fact: Satirical currencies aren’t new — during the French Revolution, “assignat” notes often carried mocking slogans.

🧩 Trader Checklist: How to Vet Political Memecoins

Political tokens are story-driven first, so risk is high. Before buying, check:

Authenticity – Look for signed wallets, onchain links, or official statements.

Contract & Liquidity – Is ownership renounced? Are upgrade keys multisig? Is liquidity locked?

Market Structure – Where does it trade, and how deep is liquidity? Beware thin DEX pools and concentration.

Branding & Impersonation – Avoid copycats; verify token provenance.

Even “official” tokens like TRUMP are still analyzed cautiously by compliance teams.

What’s Next

Political memecoins will likely stay headline-driven and volatile through the 2025 election cycle. Key areas to watch:

DFPI updates on DFAL enforcement.

Any real move beyond satire for Newsom’s “Trump Corruption Coin.”

Rapid price shifts for WLFI and TRUMP, where sentiment often changes within hours.

Bottom line: Political tokens are narrative-first and high-risk. Verify all “official” claims onchain, and remember that U.S. regulators — starting with California — are already moving toward stricter licensing and promotion standards for any project that touches their residents.

India’s crypto future remains uncertain as regulators hesitate to introduce sweeping rules, fearing that formal recognition could legitimize digital assets and create systemic financial risks, according to a Reuters report citing internal government documents.

RBI Warns of “Systemic” Risk

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to voice concerns that regulating crypto would give it a stamp of approval, potentially encouraging wider adoption and making the sector systemically important to India’s financial system.

The documents reportedly state that only an outright ban would address speculative risks, but even that wouldn’t stop peer-to-peer transfers or decentralized exchange activity.

Officials worry that regulating crypto could fuel speculation and destabilize traditional markets.

This caution reflects a long-standing RBI stance, even as crypto adoption in India leads the world.

️ India’s Current Crypto Landscape

India does not yet have a comprehensive crypto law, but strict financial rules already apply:

30% tax on crypto gains and 1% TDS (tax deducted at source) on transactions.

Mandatory registration with the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) for exchanges.

In late 2023, the FIU ordered blocks on major global platforms like Binance, KuCoin, and Kraken for failing to register.

By 2024, Binance and KuCoin returned after securing FIU approval.

Additionally, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance is mandatory for all locally operating crypto businesses.

Adoption Keeps Rising Despite Restrictions

Despite heavy taxation and regulatory uncertainty, India leads the world in crypto adoption, according to Chainalysis’ 2025 Geography of Crypto Report.

Millions of Indians continue to use crypto for trading, savings, and remittances.

Even government officials are participating: Minister Jayant Chaudhary disclosed a crypto portfolio worth around $25,500, up 19% over the past year.

Yet, as Velar CEO Mithil Thakore notes, there’s a gap between adoption metrics and daily practical use, creating what he calls a “paradoxical crossroads” for the country.

What’s Next for India’s Crypto Policy?

While India has become a global crypto adoption leader, its regulatory stance remains cautious.

A full ban is unlikely to be watertight, given unstoppable peer-to-peer and decentralized activity.

Comprehensive rules may remain on hold, as regulators weigh financial stability against innovation.

For now, India’s crypto users must navigate high taxes, AML requirements, and global exchange approvals while waiting to see if New Delhi will eventually create a balanced framework.

The ApeCoin Solana expansion is officially live, marking a major milestone for the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) ecosystem. By integrating with Solana’s high-speed, low-cost blockchain, ApeCoin is set to deliver a smoother, more scalable experience for NFT collectors, Web3 gamers, and developers.

Why ApeCoin Chose Solana

ApeCoin’s move isn’t just a cross-chain experiment — it’s a strategic shift toward scalability and efficiency:

Blazing Speed: Solana can process thousands of transactions per second, virtually eliminating congestion.

Ultra-Low Fees: Gas costs drop to fractions of a cent, making micro-transactions and in-game economies practical.

Better UX for dApps and Games: Lower friction and near-instant confirmations help developers build richer, faster applications.

For ApeCoin holders and BAYC community members, this means faster swaps, cheaper NFT trades, and more interactive gaming experiences.

What It Means for the ApeCoin Community

The expansion unlocks immediate benefits:

Lightning-Fast Transactions for NFT purchases, staking, and gameplay.

Reduced Costs, removing one of Ethereum’s biggest pain points.

New Creative Space for developers to build ambitious dApps, metaverse projects, and Web3 games.

This isn’t just about speed — it’s about enabling innovation. Developers can now create more complex and interactive ApeCoin-powered worlds without worrying about network congestion or high fees.

️ Challenges and Next Steps

Every big move comes with hurdles:

User Migration: ApeCoin will need clear onboarding guides for Ethereum users.

Security: Safeguarding assets across two chains remains a top priority.

Ecosystem Shift: Builders must adapt to Solana’s tools and workflows.

Yet these challenges also present opportunities: cross-chain partnerships, a larger user base, and deeper integration with the Solana developer ecosystem.

The Bigger Picture

The ApeCoin Solana expansion signals a turning point for Web3 gaming and NFTs. By addressing the long-standing issues of cost and speed, ApeCoin positions itself as a next-gen metaverse and gaming currency.

This move could also inspire other Ethereum-native projects to adopt a multi-chain future — a blueprint for scalability and mainstream adoption.

GameFiorg — a major Web3 gaming hub — has announced a new strategic partnership with Somnia, an EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain built for mass-scale gaming. The move is set to transform blockchain-powered entertainment, combining GameFi’s reach with Somnia’s high-performance tech.

Why This Partnership Matters

Massive Throughput: Somnia’s blockchain can handle over 1 million transactions per second (TPS), ensuring smooth, lag-free gameplay even for blockbuster titles.

Strong Funding Support: A $10 million grant program will help early-stage projects, giving game developers financial backing to build bigger and bolder.

Proven Infrastructure: Somnia already partners with LayerZero, BitGo, and Google Cloud, signaling serious enterprise-grade capabilities.

This foundation allows GameFiorg to create richer, faster, and more immersive gaming experiences, bringing mainstream-level performance to Web3.

️ For Developers: More Freedom to Build

The alliance opens up new possibilities for creators:

Grants and resources to accelerate ambitious game launches

Low latency and scalability so devs can focus on storytelling and gameplay instead of technical bottlenecks

Interoperability through EVM compatibility, making it easier to onboard existing projects and assets

With fewer infrastructure headaches, developers can push creative limits and experiment with deeper gameplay, in-game economies, and NFT-based assets.

A Win for Players and Web3 Adoption

Gamers stand to gain faster performance and seamless experiences, while the broader crypto ecosystem benefits from greater mainstream appeal. By integrating Somnia’s cutting-edge infrastructure, GameFiorg aims to accelerate blockchain adoption beyond niche audiences.

Bottom line:
The GameFiorg x Somnia partnership is more than a tech upgrade — it’s a strategic leap toward a future where Web3 gaming competes head-to-head with traditional gaming, powered by 1M+ TPS, developer-friendly tools, and robust funding.

Crypto adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa is accelerating at a remarkable pace, driven by practical, real-world use cases that go well beyond speculation. According to a new Chainalysis report, the region received $205 billion in onchain value between July 2024 and June 2025 — a 52% jump from the previous year — making it the third-fastest growing crypto region globally, behind only Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Institutional Adoption: Stablecoins Lead the Charge

Nigeria tops the list with $92.1 billion in value received, powered by a tech-savvy youth demographic and chronic inflation that makes stablecoins an appealing alternative to the local naira.

South Africa’s regulated market has attracted institutional players, who are expanding beyond trading into custody and broader crypto product offerings.

Million-dollar stablecoin transactions now flow between Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, highlighting the continent’s growing role in international settlement.

Stablecoins are not just speculative tools here — they are a functional substitute for scarce U.S. dollars and a shield against persistent currency devaluation.

Retail Growth Outpaces the World

Chainalysis found that 8% of all crypto transfers in the region are $10,000 or less, compared with 6% globally, underscoring how crypto is being used day-to-day rather than only for large trades.

Drivers of this adoption include:

Limited banking access across rural and urban areas

Rapidly devaluing local fiat currencies

High inflation and dollar shortages

The report suggests that crypto here serves as a financial lifeline, not just an investment.

Beyond Finance: Broader Blockchain Use Cases

Africa is also becoming a testing ground for non-financial blockchain applications. StarkWare co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson noted the continent’s role in using decentralized tech to tackle issues like energy insecurity and infrastructure gaps — signaling that Africa could be key to global crypto mass adoption.

Why This Matters

For investors: The next wave of crypto growth may come from utility-driven adoption, not just speculative trading.

For builders: Africa offers fertile ground for real-world Web3 applications — from remittances and payments to energy and supply-chain solutions.

For policymakers: South Africa’s regulatory framework shows that clear rules can coexist with innovation, attracting serious institutional capital.

Bottom line:
Sub-Saharan Africa isn’t just joining the crypto economy — it’s redefining it, showing how decentralized technologies can thrive where traditional finance falls short. With $205 billion in annual onchain value and surging retail use, the region is rapidly becoming one of crypto’s most important frontiers.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again hit pause on multiple high-profile crypto ETF applications, delaying key rulings into late October and mid-November.

New Deadlines for Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETFs

Fresh SEC filings show extended review periods for some of the most closely watched proposals:

Franklin Templeton

Ethereum staking amendment ➜ Nov. 13

Solana and XRP ETFs ➜ Nov. 14

BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (staking amendment) ➜ Oct. 30

These delays are the maximum allowed under Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act, which lets the SEC take up to 180 days — and sometimes an extra 60 — before issuing a final decision.

Growing Backlog of Crypto ETF Proposals

This week’s moves add to an already lengthy queue:

Nov. 12 ➜ Bitwise Dogecoin ETF & Grayscale Hedera ETF

Oct. 8 – 24 ➜ NYSE Arca’s Truth Social Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF, 21Shares and Bitwise Solana ETFs, 21Shares Core XRP Trust, and WisdomTree XRP Fund

Oct. 12 ➜ Canary PENGU ETF

By late August, at least 92 crypto-related ETF proposals were waiting for SEC review.

️ A Pro-Crypto Shift — But Still No Quick Green Light

The delays come despite a seemingly friendlier regulatory climate. Since President Trump’s January inauguration, the SEC has pivoted toward integrating digital assets into U.S. capital markets:

July 31 ➜ SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled Project Crypto, aimed at modernizing securities rules for crypto trading, lending, and staking.

Sept. 11 (OECD Roundtable, Paris) ➜ Atkins declared, “Crypto’s time has come.”

Even with these signals, the Commission is exercising maximum caution. The filings give no hint of approval or rejection — only that more time is needed.

Why This Matters for Crypto Markets

Institutional flows: Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs have already fueled billions in inflows; approval of staking-based or altcoin ETFs could open entirely new capital channels.

Price impact: Each delay can inject short-term uncertainty, but the underlying trend of growing institutional involvement remains positive.

Market structure: Rules that define how staking and altcoin ETFs are treated could reshape on-chain liquidity and long-term demand.

Bottom line:
Despite Washington’s warming rhetoric on crypto, the SEC continues to move slowly and strategically, extending reviews on Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other ETF proposals. The coming October–November window will be critical for determining whether the next wave of crypto ETFs finally gets the green light — or faces yet another round of regulatory patience.

Jack Dorsey’s new peer-to-peer messaging app bitchat saw a massive adoption spike in Nepal this week, with over 48,000 downloads as violent anti-corruption protests coincided with a temporary ban on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and YouTube.

Social Media Ban Triggers a Mass Shift

According to open-source developer callebtc, Nepal downloads jumped from just 3,344 last Wednesday to 48,781 on Monday, far outpacing Indonesia’s 11,324.

The government briefly blocked major social platforms to suppress anti-government content as Gen Z-led protests escalated, with parliament and the supreme court set on fire.

Security forces responded with live fire and tear gas, leaving at least 19 dead and hundreds injured. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, accused of corruption and misuse of funds, has since resigned.

Why Users Are Turning to “Freedom Tech”

The Nepal and Indonesia surges highlight a global shift toward decentralized, encrypted communication tools to avoid government surveillance and censorship.

bitchat operates on Bluetooth mesh networks, allowing encrypted, internet-free messaging.

No accounts, emails, or phone numbers are required—no central servers, no single point of control.

Similar privacy-focused apps include Signal, Session, Status, and Nostr-powered Damus.

Bigger Picture: Censorship vs. Privacy

While Dorsey’s app is only two months old, its growth underscores rising demand for secure alternatives as global regulations tighten:

The European Union’s proposed “Chat Control” law would force messaging platforms to scan messages before encryption, potentially undermining privacy across Telegram, WhatsApp and Signal.

In contrast, bitchat’s fully decentralized architecture makes pre-encryption scanning nearly impossible.

Still Tiny vs. Big Tech — For Now

Despite the buzz, decentralized apps remain far behind Meta’s scale, with Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger collectively averaging 3.48 billion daily users as of June 2025—a 6% year-on-year increase.

Yet the explosive, real-time adoption during political unrest in Nepal and Indonesia shows how quickly secure peer-to-peer networks can surge when mainstream platforms are blocked.

Jack Dorsey’s new peer-to-peer messaging app bitchat saw a massive adoption spike in Nepal this week, with over 48,000 downloads as violent anti-corruption protests coincided with a temporary ban on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and YouTube.

Social Media Ban Triggers a Mass Shift

According to open-source developer callebtc, Nepal downloads jumped from just 3,344 last Wednesday to 48,781 on Monday, far outpacing Indonesia’s 11,324.

The government briefly blocked major social platforms to suppress anti-government content as Gen Z-led protests escalated, with parliament and the supreme court set on fire.

Security forces responded with live fire and tear gas, leaving at least 19 dead and hundreds injured. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, accused of corruption and misuse of funds, has since resigned.

Why Users Are Turning to “Freedom Tech”

The Nepal and Indonesia surges highlight a global shift toward decentralized, encrypted communication tools to avoid government surveillance and censorship.

bitchat operates on Bluetooth mesh networks, allowing encrypted, internet-free messaging.

No accounts, emails, or phone numbers are required—no central servers, no single point of control.

Similar privacy-focused apps include Signal, Session, Status, and Nostr-powered Damus.

Bigger Picture: Censorship vs. Privacy

While Dorsey’s app is only two months old, its growth underscores rising demand for secure alternatives as global regulations tighten:

The European Union’s proposed “Chat Control” law would force messaging platforms to scan messages before encryption, potentially undermining privacy across Telegram, WhatsApp and Signal.

In contrast, bitchat’s fully decentralized architecture makes pre-encryption scanning nearly impossible.

Still Tiny vs. Big Tech — For Now

Despite the buzz, decentralized apps remain far behind Meta’s scale, with Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger collectively averaging 3.48 billion daily users as of June 2025—a 6% year-on-year increase.

Yet the explosive, real-time adoption during political unrest in Nepal and Indonesia shows how quickly secure peer-to-peer networks can surge when mainstream platforms are blocked.

North Korea has opened its first public computer club, giving locals a tightly controlled taste of modern digital life, Daily NK reports. Authorities plan to roll out similar clubs in Wonsan, Sinuiju, and Hamhung in the coming months.

First-of-its-Kind Venue

Launch: Announced by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in April 2025.

Capacity: Seats 300 users.

Games & Entertainment: Offers only state-approved entertainment — simple racing or horse-racing simulators, licensed movies, and access to North Korea’s closed national intranet, not the global internet.

️ Prices & Access

Entry Requirements: Visitors must present a national ID or student card, sign a logbook noting start/end times and computer number.

Cost: About 5,000 North Korean won per hour (≈ $5 USD).

Memberships: Monthly e-pass subscriptions are available, though pricing isn’t public.

Payment: Cashless options accepted, including domestic cards and state-run e-wallets already used in restaurants, shops, and public transport.

Extra Services

Users can order food and drinks for an additional fee.

Printing and photocopying services are available, with revenue partly supporting the Socialist Patriotic Youth League.

Total Surveillance

Digital Monitoring: Every session is logged. Staff can remotely view user screens in real time.

Physical Oversight: Security officers and police conduct random patrols and may question users about “politically problematic” behavior.

Risk of Repercussions: Sources told Daily NK that “even a small misstep can lead to trouble,” creating an atmosphere of unease.

️ Local Reaction

Some residents see the club as more propaganda showcase than genuine progress.

“Authorities want us to enjoy a modern lifestyle under complete control,” one source said.