Possible vs. Probable in Trading — Most Traders Ignore This

[m_c_jacob]

One of the biggest mistakes traders make — especially beginners — is confusing what is possible with what is probable.
This confusion leads to poor decisions, unnecessary risks, and eventually, losses that could have been easily avoided.

Possible and Probable Are NOT the Same Thing

Let's make this very clear:
• Possible means it can happen.
• Probable means it is likely to happen, based on evidence and context.

In life, many things are possible — but that doesn’t mean we should live our lives preparing for each possible (and often extreme) event.
To give you a real-life example: it’s possible that something falls from the roof top of a builing and hits you while shopping and die. Sadly, this actually happened in Romania last winter...
But as rare and tragic as it is, it’s not probable. And it definitely doesn’t mean that we should stop going outside, right?

Trading Is a Game of Probabilities, Not Possibilities

When trading, we are not betting on what is possible.
If we did, we would enter trades every time we imagine a price could go higher or lower — and that would be a disaster.
Instead, we are betting on what is probable — based on:
• Technical analysis
• Price action
• Market context
• Volume
• Sentiment
️ Yes, it is always possible for price to go in either direction.
But our edge comes from identifying what is more likely to happen based on the data we have.

Why This Difference Is Crucial for Your Trading Success

Focusing on probabilities means:
• You enter only high-probability setups.
• You manage risk properly because you accept that nothing is 100% sure.
• You avoid chasing trades just because "it’s possible" something happens.
Focusing on possibilities leads to:
• Overtrading
• Emotional decisions
• Hoping instead of following a plan
• Blowing up accounts

Conclusion: Trade Like a Professional — Trade Probabilities

Remember:
"Anything is possible, but not everything is probable."
If you want to survive and thrive in the markets, focus on probabilities — not on fantasies of what could happen.
You are not trading "maybe this happens", you are trading "this is likely to happen, and I’m managing my risk if it doesn’t".
Make this shift in mindset, and you’ll already be ahead of most traders out there.

[jacson4]

Great reminder—trading is about playing the probabilities, not chasing every possibility.

[EmTeam]

Beginners often forget this difference and end up taking risks that wipe out gains.