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Bitcoin Is Up 29.7% Since the US-Iran War Started. Two Catalysts This Week Could Push It Further
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Bitcoin has outperformed both the S&P 500 and gold since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, when a US airstrike killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. From that initial shock low, Bitcoin has now risen 29.7%, a performance that has surprised many observers given that the conflict has been a consistent source of geopolitical uncertainty and oil price pressure across the same period. The asset's resilience reflects a combination of factors: a weakening US dollar, rising government debt creating demand for scarce assets, growing institutional infrastructure through spot ETFs, and a market that has learned to treat escalation headlines as noise against the backdrop of a fundamentally tightening supply environment. Bitcoin has not recovered to October's high of $126,080, but its trajectory since the war began demonstrates a capacity to appreciate through sustained geopolitical stress that its critics argued would be impossible.
Two specific catalysts this week could extend that momentum further, according to 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen. The first is a Senate vote on Monday for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Federal Reserve chair — an event Thielen says would remove "uncertainty overhang" regardless of Warsh's more hawkish inflation stance, because markets generally prefer predictable policy over ambiguity. The second and more significant catalyst is the Senate Banking Committee's markup of the CLARITY Act on Thursday, which Thielen described as the "most significant piece of crypto legislation in years" and a potential "turning point for regulatory certainty across digital assets." His assessment is that both events lean bullish for Bitcoin: the Fed confirmation removes a source of policy uncertainty that typically pressures risk assets, while the CLARITY Act markup would reduce the institutional friction that has kept some large capital allocators cautious about expanding crypto exposure. If both events proceed without negative surprises this week, Bitcoin's hold above $80,000 could attract the kind of institutional follow-through that transforms a technical support level into a genuine launchpad for the next leg higher.
