Bitcoin Rally Fades as Prices Nosedive. End of Bullish Cycle?

[kevin1]

Technical analysis will tell you that maybe it’s time for a pullback. But then again, this is crypto. It’s the wild west, where predictions are polite suggestions at best. Here’s what we know about where we are.

Bitcoin Takes a Breather

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
started the week on a quieter note, trading mostly sideways while altcoins decided to explore the downside a little more aggressively. After hitting a record high of $124,500 in mid-August, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has pulled back roughly 13%, currently hovering between $108,000 and $110,000.

That’s still a big number, but the market mood has shifted from full-blown euphoria to cautious watching. And the question on everyone’s mind? Did we just top out or is there more room to the upside?

️ Politics, Tariffs, and Bitcoin’s Rally

Crypto’s recent run-up didn’t happen in a vacuum. After the April dip – triggered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff announcements – Bitcoin bounced back hard.

Traders quickly shrugged off the policy shock, betting that a crypto-friendly administration would eventually be good for business.

And they weren’t wrong. Since late 2024, Bitcoin and co have been riding a bullish wave fueled by increased Treasury interest, ETF inflows, and a broader perception that digital assets are now mainstream.

But with prices off their August highs, the question is whether the market still has the energy to keep pushing… or if gravity is about to kick in.

Technical Check: Bulls, Bears, and Battle Lines

Let’s talk charts. At current levels, Bitcoin is sitting right in the middle of its long-term ascending channel – a key battleground between bulls and bears.

1️⃣ Upside scenario: If Bitcoin can hold the line around current prices, the structure could accumulate to a potential breakout toward fresh highs. A sustained move above $112,000 could flip short-term momentum back in favor of the bulls.

2️⃣ Trip south scenario: If the near-term support fails, there’s potential for $98,500 as the bears' next target. It’s a previous bottom hit on June 22.

3️⃣ Deep south scenario: $92,000 could become the next support as it would represent the fourth inflection point of the ascending channel’s lower boundary. That is, if prices continue to drift lower at the same steady pace.

4️⃣ Really deep south scenario: A steeper correction could drag Bitcoin all the way back to $75,000 – the key level last touched on April 7 (yes, it was the tariff mayhem). It’s the dip, which kicked off the current bull cycle so it’s something of a big deal.

Adding to the caution, both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are now sitting above current prices, suggesting that the upward momentum has cooled – at least for now.

The Seasonal Side of Crypto

Bitcoin’s price history has a rhythm, and for better or worse, crypto dances to seasonal vibes. Historically, late summer and early fall tend to bring volatility spikes – and often, corrections – as trading volumes thin out and liquidity gets patchy.

The OG token isn’t the only one feeling the heat. Ether
ETHUSD
– which hit a record high of just under $5,000 on August 24 – has slipped roughly 11%. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; corrections can reset overheated conditions and shake out weak hands (not you, diamond hands) before another leg higher.

Still, with macro uncertainty looming, traders should expect choppier price action heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Technical Analysis: What to Make of It

Technical analysis is built on one key assumption: history repeats itself. Traders look for continuation patterns, support and resistance levels, and indicators like moving averages to predict future price moves.

But technical analysis doesn’t account for surprises (unless you go full meta and add the surprises to the natural order of events). Sudden regulatory actions, geopolitical shocks, or even a single whale unloading a massive position can blow up the cleanest technical setups.

️ Bottom Line

The next few weeks will be key. If Bitcoin can reclaim momentum and punch above $112,000, the bulls could get back in control. But if we slide through $100,000 and lose $92,000, the conversation may shift toward deeper corrections and range trading, with a long-term bear target of $75,000.

In the bigger picture, this pullback could just be part of Bitcoin’s usual rhythm: rally, correct, consolidate, repeat.

Still, Bitcoin ETFs are booming and companies continue to load up on the crypto and jam it in their treasuries while the White House is working out crypto-friendly legislations.

️ Fast fact: Bitcoin has lost 80% of its value not once or twice but four times, only to recoup the losses and come back roaring to a new all-time high. What would an 80% drop look like? Going from $124,500 to $24,000.

Off to you: WAGMI? Or NGMI? Share your thoughts in the comments!