Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Is Rising Again — And Up to 20% of Miners Are Already Unprofitable

[lingriiddd]

The Bitcoin mining industry is entering a period of intensifying economic pressure that is already forcing a meaningful portion of operators out of profitability, and the conditions are set to get more difficult before they improve. The next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment, estimated for May 15, 2026, is projected to increase mining difficulty from 132.47 T to 135.64 T — continuing a long-term upward trend that reflects growing competition for block rewards even as the block subsidy itself has been halved. Rising energy costs are compounding the challenge: oil prices have been elevated, power costs have increased across major mining regions, and the combination of higher difficulty and higher operating expenses is squeezing margins that were already thin for less efficient operators. Asset manager CoinShares estimates that up to 20% of Bitcoin miners are currently unprofitable under present market and economic conditions, representing a significant portion of the network's hashrate operating at or below breakeven.

The hashprice metric — which measures miner revenue per unit of computing power deployed — has fallen to levels between $36 and $38 per petahash-second per day, a range that CoinShares describes as near or at breakeven for some operators. Hashprice is the single most important profitability indicator for Bitcoin miners because it captures the combined effect of Bitcoin's price, network difficulty, and transaction fee revenue in one number. When hashprice falls to breakeven levels, the least efficient miners face a binary choice: absorb losses in anticipation of a price recovery, or shut down machines and exit the market. Historically, periods of miner capitulation — when unprofitable operators shut down in significant numbers — have often preceded Bitcoin price recoveries, as the reduction in selling pressure from miners liquidating coins to cover operating costs removes a consistent source of supply. Whether the current pressure produces a similar dynamic depends on how long hashprice remains compressed and whether Bitcoin's price recovers quickly enough to restore margins before forced shutdowns accumulate.

[madtrader]

Hashprice at $36-38 breakeven range making this the most important single metric to watch for capitulation signals