Bitcoin Likely to Trade Below Strategy’s Cost Basis in 2026

[mendez]

Traders are increasingly betting that Bitcoin will fall below Strategy’s average purchase price in 2026. According to Polymarket, there is a 75% chance BTC trades below Strategy’s cost basis of roughly $75,979.

Despite expectations of a drawdown, confidence remains high that Strategy will continue accumulating Bitcoin rather than selling. Odds of a major BTC selloff by the firm remain below 26%, while routine purchases throughout the year are viewed as highly likely.

Strategy recently expanded its Bitcoin holdings to nearly 710,000 BTC after a $2.13 billion acquisition, reinforcing its long-term accumulation strategy despite short-term price uncertainty.

[bonk]

imagine being down billions on paper and just being like yeah let’s buy more