Traders Expect Bitcoin to Dip Before Any $100,000 Recovery

[mendez]

Market participants increasingly believe Bitcoin could fall further before attempting another run toward $100,000. On Polymarket, traders see a 65% probability that BTC drops to $80,000 before recovering later in 2026.

Kalshi bettors are even more cautious, pricing in strong odds that Bitcoin could bottom between $70,000 and $60,000 this year. Some forecasts suggest downside targets as low as the mid-$50,000 range, reinforcing concerns that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged consolidation or bear phase.

Despite this outlook, traders still assign a 65% chance that Bitcoin eventually breaks $100,000 before mid-2026, though not without turbulence along the way.

[bonk]

honestly if it breaks 100k by mid-2026 after shaking everyone out, that sounds pretty on-brand for bitcoin