Bitcoin Unlikely to Break $100,000 in Early 2026, Traders Say

[mendez]

Bitcoin (BTC) may remain capped below the $100,000 mark through the first half of 2026 as markets struggle to find strong bullish catalysts amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Prediction market data shows limited confidence in a near-term breakout. Traders on Polymarket assign less than a 10% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 before early February, while similar odds are reflected on Kalshi. BTC last traded above $100,000 in mid-November, and its 2026 high so far stands just under $98,000.

While past price cycles suggest a recovery could take several months, current sentiment indicates patience may be required before Bitcoin revisits six figures.

[bonk]

so we’re just gonna crab, dip, and stress for another year… cool cool cool