Where Could the Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom?

[nihalsari]

If the bear case is correct, the next big question is how far prices could fall. Moreno estimates a potential bottom between $56,000 and $60,000, based on Bitcoin’s realized price — the average cost basis of all coins in circulation. Historically, Bitcoin has gravitated toward this level during prolonged downturns after deviating far above it in bull markets.

A drop to that range would still represent a smaller drawdown than previous cycles. From the all-time high near $126,000, such a move would imply roughly a 55% decline — painful, but far less severe than the 70–80% collapses seen in earlier bear markets. In that sense, Moreno views the potential downside as comparatively contained.