Odds of Collapse & Market Fallout

[ed]

The probability of a MicroStrategy collapse in 2026 is estimated 10–20%, based on balance sheet risk and BTC volatility:

Stock has fallen 50% this year, and institutional investors are moving to Bitcoin ETFs.

If BTC stays below $50K, the company could face capital shortfalls, triggering asset sales or restructuring.

A collapse could flood Bitcoin supply, eroding confidence and triggering a broader crypto selloff.

MicroStrategy isn’t just a company; it’s a key pillar in the Bitcoin ecosystem—and its failure could dwarf FTX’s collapse.

[mendez]

10–20% doesn’t sound huge until you remember how levered MSTR actually is