♻️ Samson Mow Says ETH Holders Will Rotate Back to BTC — But History Disagrees

[cryptohog]

Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and long-time Bitcoin maximalist, believes Ethereum’s rally won’t last — predicting ETH bagholders will eventually dump and rotate back into Bitcoin.
Mow’s Take

Narrative pumping:

    “Most ETH holders have a lot of BTC (ICO/insiders) and they are rotating that BTC into ETH to pump it on new narratives (Ethereum Treasury companies).”

The exit plan: Once ETH hits a high enough level, Mow says early holders will sell, leaving “generational bagholders,” and then move profits back into BTC.

Psychology at play: He calls it the “Bagholder’s Dilemma” — the closer ETH gets to its ATH, the more selling pressure builds.

Mow also brushed off the recent ETH/BTC ratio breakout (now 0.036, double April’s low), saying Ethereum has always been “a vehicle for people to get more Bitcoin.”
The Pushback

Anthony Sassano (Ethereum advocate) called Mow’s comments a bullish signal for ETH:

    “Old school Bitcoin maxis coping about ETH is actually one of the most bullish things imaginable.”

Ted Pillows sees a typical market rotation ahead:

    ETH to a new ATH → mini altseason

    Capital back into BTC (~$140K target)

    Final rotation into ETH & alts before the cycle peak

The Market Context

Bitcoin dominance has dropped 10% since late June as capital flows into alts.

Nick Ruck (LVRG Research) credits ETH’s surge to institutional interest in “strategy reserve” plays, DeFi TVL growth, and new yield farming/lending strategies.

ETH Weekly Close: Highest since Nov 2021 at $4,300 — just 12% below ATH of $4,878.

Bottom Line:
Mow sees ETH’s pump as a temporary setup for a BTC rotation. History, however, shows that ETH often lags Bitcoin in bull markets but still reaches new highs later in the cycle — sometimes triggering the final wave of altcoin mania.

[jacson4]

Mow’s argument isn’t new — BTC maxis have been calling ETH “exit liquidity” for years — but the timing is interesting. ETH just hit its highest weekly close since 2021, and BTC dominance has been slipping. Historically, we do see BTC → ETH rotations during bull runs, but they’re often followed by another BTC leg before a late-stage alt blow-off. If ETH manages to break its ATH while DeFi TVL is climbing and institutions are sniffing around, the sell pressure Mow warns about might take longer to hit than he thinks.

[Nahid10]

If you’re playing rotations, Mow’s “Bagholder’s Dilemma” is basically the exit signal game — early ETH whales front-run retail FOMO and slide back into BTC before the music stops. That said, we’re still 12% below ATH, and ETH/BTC just doubled from April’s lows. There’s room for ETH to squeeze higher before any mass profit-taking happens. Could be a nice ride if you manage risk.