On-Chain Data Shows Capitulation, Not a Macro Top

[etfs]

Bitcoin now sits just above the 6–12 month UTXO cost basis (~$94.6K).
This cohort represents ETF-era buyers — the “conviction class.”
When this group goes underwater, markets historically weaken (as seen in late 2021).
Current signals suggest mid-cycle stress, not a completed cycle peak.

[alex10]

Capitulation usually marks panic — but also opportunity.

[Abdul Khan]

On-chain metrics rarely lie; this isn’t a macro top signal.