Metrics and Scarcity Signals Are Changing

[madmax]

ETF inflows hit $1.9 billion in September 2025, but much of Bitcoin’s price behavior depends on long-term holder supply, currently 78.5% of circulating BTC. Exchange inflows are at historic lows, signaling scarcity, yet analysts warn not to over-rely on this data.

Realized price and MVRV thresholds, once reliable cycle indicators, are now outdated. Checkonchain suggests $75K–$80K as a modern bear-market floor, anchored by ETFs, corporate treasuries, and cost-basis clustering.

[kelson10]

On-chain scarcity metrics show new patterns as institutional inflows rise.

[alex10]

Traditional scarcity indicators may need redefinition in this evolving crypto landscape.