🟠 Bitcoin Price Watch: Retail vs. Whales – Who’s Really in Control?

[AIcash]

Key takeaways (TL;DR):

Retail traders are loading up on BTC during dips, but whales are dumping hard enough to keep the price suppressed.

A crash toward $105K looks less likely now, but sentiment is still out of sync with actual trading flows.

BTC stuck in a short-term downtrend despite strong retail buying.

Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC): $113,072 (+2.4% from $108,665 low)

Ethereum (ETH): $4,568 (+8.26% from $4,310 low)

After the brutal weekend sell-off, both BTC and ETH are trying to claw back lost ground. ETH bounced stronger, but BTC looks… sluggish.

Retail vs. Whales

Retail traders (1K–10K cohorts):
Net buyers all week. Spot and perps longs on Binance + Coinbase surged, with ~$101M in net buying on Coinbase alone.

Whales / institutions (1M–10M cohorts):
Net sellers. Binance + Coinbase perps unloaded ~$7.5B. Selling pressure has eased slightly near $111K, but it’s still dominating.

Translation: Retail thinks they’re buying the dip. Whales are saying, “Thanks for the exit liquidity.”

Heatmap & Risk Levels

Heavy bid absorption around $111K–$110K.

Next liquidity cluster sits around $104K.

Another liquidation cascade toward $105K seems less likely (for now).

Still, whales outweigh retail support, so short-term pressure remains tilted downward.

The Big Question: $120K or $105K First?

Retail dreams of mean reversion back to $117K–$118K.

Whales keep leaning on sell pressure.

Anchored CVD suggests consolidation might come if sell volume dries up… but sentiment and flow remain misaligned.

Bottom line: Retail is fighting the good fight, scooping up sats like it’s a Black Friday sale. But until whales chill on the selling, Bitcoin’s stuck playing defense. Keep an eye on cumulative volume data—when (or if) it flips, momentum might finally shift.

[Nahid10]

Love the breakdown! Really highlights the classic retail vs whale tug-of-war. Retail piling in around $111K is encouraging, but until whales back off the $7B sell wall, BTC’s upside feels capped. $120K needs flow confirmation — otherwise, it’s still defense mode.

[jacson4]

Great analysis! The mismatch between sentiment and actual flows is spot on. Retail buying every dip looks bullish on the surface, but anchored CVD still tilts bearish. I agree $105K flush looks less likely now, but without whale cooperation, consolidation > breakout in the short term.