The Market is at 80°C. What Happens at 100°C?

[kevin1]

Greetings, everyone.

Today, I don't want to talk about the news. I want to talk about what truly matters: market structure. Many traders are currently looking for a news event to explain the current lull and predict Bitcoin's next move. They are looking in the wrong direction.

Remember this: the news is not the cause of a move. It's just a convenient explanation handed to you after the move has already happened. For me, the chart is primary. And right now, it's telling a story that most people are not going to like.

The Global Picture: An Economy of Bubbles and Boiling Water

We live in an era of bubbles. We had the dot-coms, the tulip mania, and now we are witnessing the AI bubble. Yes, AI is a game-changer, and I am actively integrating it into all my processes - it would be foolish to deny this trend. But that doesn't change the fact that the markets are overheated.

The entire global economy right now feels like water heated to 80 degrees Celsius. It’s not boiling yet, but the boiling point is near. Something is about to happen, and the steam is getting ready to burst out.

The Market's Pulse: Where the Crowd Goes Wrong

And what about the crowd? The crowd isn't in Bitcoin anymore. They are trapped in altcoins, having resigned themselves to being "forever waiters." They are praying for an altseason, not realizing that the brief 20-30% pump we saw - that was the altseason. It has already become a meme.

I see endless posts about liquidations on social media. The sentiment is desperate. Most have already lost their futures positions or will lose them soon. What reigns in the market right now isn't fear or greed, but rather a slow realization that the bear market never really left.

The Main Setup on the Chart: A Classic Liquidity Trap

Now for the most important part - what is happening on the Bitcoin chart?

As you can see, we are sitting on a critical trendline support. Everyone sees it. Novices and retail traders see this as a clear "buy the dip" signal. And that is part of the game.
A deliberate trap is being set:
Consolidation: The price is being intentionally held near the support line to create an illusion of strength and to accumulate buyers' positions.
Stacking Stop-Losses: Market makers know that the crowd places their stops just below this obvious line.
Execution: Once enough liquidity has been built up, a sharp breakdown will occur. This will trigger a cascade of stop-loss liquidations, which will only accelerate the fall.

I remain fully on the bearish side until we see a confident break of the all-time high. I view any bounce from the current levels as an opportunity for a better entry into a short position.

What's Next?

What is my advice to myself for the next 2-4 weeks? Wait.

The market is preparing for a great cleansing. A wave of delistings of junk projects and meme coins - which serve no one but the exchanges that use them for hype - is coming. After this cleanse, there will be incredible opportunities to buy at very attractive prices.

Now is the time for deep research into the projects you truly believe in. It's time to get your limit orders ready and wait for the market to come to your prices.

Thank you for your attention.

[Rimon Khan]

If we’re already at 80°C, 100°C might mean full-on breakout mode.

[alex10]

The heat is rising—market reaching melt-up territory soon?