GOLD → Consolidation. The fundamental backdrop is changing

[mendez]

XAUUSD
stabilizes after a week-long decline, failing to consolidate above $4050. The market is taking a pause before new impulses. Focus on 4030 and 3980...

Investors are closing positions before the end of the week and month, the reason being the uncertainty surrounding the deal with China and Powell's less dovish stance on policy: a 25 bp rate cut is already priced in. The probability of a December cut has fallen to 72.8% (from 91.1% a week ago). Powell emphasized that decisions depend on data, which is not available due to the shutdown.
The strong dollar (2-month highs) is putting pressure on gold. Weak data from China (PMI fell to 49.0) is reducing demand from the largest consumer.
The balance is tipping towards weak fundamentals...

Resistance levels: 4030, 4085
Support levels: 3982, 3955, 3915

Technically, bears are keeping the market below 4030 - strong resistance. If buyers enter the market (there are currently no fundamental reasons for this) and the bulls are able to break through 4030 and keep the price above this level, we will have a chance for growth. But under the current circumstances, I expect a correction to support before a possible rise.

[EmTeam]

Gold’s coiling up — once volatility returns, expect a strong breakout.

[jacson4]

Consolidation phase often sets up the biggest macro moves.