Fed Cut = 100% Odds

[nihalsari]

The Fed decision is here. Markets have priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut today.

Breakdown:

96% odds of a 25 bps cut

4% odds of a 50 bps cut (CME FedWatch)

Polymarket bettors: 93% for 25 bps, 5% for 50 bps.

This would be the first move in a potential 3-cut path into year-end.

Why it matters:
Interest-rate cuts usually trigger risk-on appetite across markets, especially in Bitcoin. BTC already pushed past $117K, its highest in four weeks, as traders position ahead of Powell’s speech.

Everyone’s watching the Fed Chair for hints on whether this is the start of a dovish pivot — or just a one-off adjustment.