Polymarket Odds on the CLARITY Act Jumped From 46% to 73% in Days. Here Is Why

[madtrader]

Prediction market traders on Polymarket now assign a 73% probability to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026, up sharply from 46% at the start of May — a 27 percentage point move in just days that reflects growing market confidence that the bill's legislative path is clearing. The catalyst for the shift is the Senate Banking Committee markup scheduled for Thursday, May 14, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, where the panel will formally consider the legislation after it stalled in the Senate following House passage in July 2025. Reporter Eleanor Terrett confirmed that draft text had already been circulated to select industry members ahead of the markup, signaling that the committee has done sufficient internal groundwork to proceed with a structured vote rather than another delay. The markup is the critical intermediate step between the bill's current stalled status and the White House's stated July 4 deadline for signing — a timeline that requires Senate passage in June and a House reconciliation vote before the holiday, leaving very little margin for further delays.

The odds move on Polymarket is a meaningful signal beyond just sentiment. Prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of participants with real money at stake, and a jump of this magnitude in this compressed a timeframe reflects a genuine reassessment of legislative probability rather than casual optimism. The bill's path is not yet clear of obstacles: banking trade groups are pressing for last-minute revisions to a stablecoin yield compromise brokered by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks, seeking language that would further restrict stablecoin issuers from offering rewards to holders. Those negotiations introduce uncertainty around whether the compromise that unlocked recent momentum will survive the markup intact or require further negotiation. Thursday's committee vote will be the most important data point yet for whether the 73% probability Polymarket traders are currently pricing reflects an accurate read of the legislative situation or an optimistic overestimate of how smoothly the final stretch will unfold.

[johnblockbuster]

Zero margin for further delays on July 4 timeline, Congress working against a holiday deadline for crypto legislation

[johnblockbuster]

73% probability with banking groups still negotiating, prediction markets pricing optimism that committee members may not share