Bitcoin Loses 200-Week EMA After 882-Day Uptrend

[cryptoenthusiast]

Bitcoin weekly chart by Rekt Capital. Source: X

Bitcoin (BTC) has closed a weekly candle below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023, ending a long-running technical uptrend that lasted 882 days.

The 200-week EMA, currently near $67,628, has historically acted as a dividing line between expansion phases and deeper corrective periods. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that losing this level as support raises the possibility it could flip into resistance during any short-term recovery attempt.

Historical cycles show reclaiming the 200-week EMA takes time:

2018: ~14 weeks below the level

March 2020 crash: ~8 weeks

2022 bear market: ~30 weeks

On average, Bitcoin has remained under this key moving average for roughly 17–18 weeks before regaining it.

Onchain data adds to the cautious outlook. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. observed that entity-adjusted liveliness — a metric tracking long-term holder spending activity — peaked in December 2025 following Bitcoin’s all-time high near $126,000 in October. The metric has since rolled over, historically a signal that markets may enter extended accumulation phases lasting one to two years.

With momentum cooling and long-term participation slowing, the path to reclaiming the 200-week EMA could require sustained consolidation.

[nihalsari]

btc under the 200 week and we’re speedrunning the 2022 flashbacks