Macro Forces Could Shape Bitcoin’s Next Move

[cryptohog]

Beyond technical levels, macroeconomic developments are increasingly influencing Bitcoin’s outlook. Some analysts point to the potential for increased oil supply if the US gains access to Venezuela’s reserves, a shift that could lower energy prices and improve global liquidity conditions.

Lower energy costs may encourage capital rotation into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, as investors rebalance portfolios. Additionally, speculation around Venezuela’s alleged Bitcoin reserves—estimated at over 600,000 coins—has introduced a longer-term supply narrative. Any seizure or reduction in circulating supply could support higher valuations over time.

With technical resistance, ETF inflows, and geopolitical factors all converging, Bitcoin’s next test could determine whether early-2026 strength evolves into a full bullish reversal—or stalls below key resistance.

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the venezuela btc supply angle is wild but feels like one of those things that takes years to actually matter