Polymarket Lost Ground in April While Kalshi Surged 13%. The Prediction Market Race Is Tightening

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Monthly volume figures for prediction markets. Source: Dune

Polymarket's monthly trading volume fell approximately 8.9% in April to $10.2 billion, marking the first month-over-month decline since August, while rival Kalshi grew 13% to $14.8 billion over the same period. The overall prediction market sector expanded to $29.8 billion in April from $26.5 billion in March — a 12.4% increase — meaning Polymarket's decline is a market share loss rather than a sector-wide contraction. The timing is significant: Polymarket is attempting to reintegrate US markets through a dedicated app launched in December 2025, but that platform remains siloed from its global exchange and liquidity pool following the company's 2022 CFTC settlement that barred it from allowing US residents on its main platform. That structural disadvantage against a fully US-licensed competitor like Kalshi explains much of the volume gap, and it will persist until Polymarket resolves its regulatory standing and can offer US users access to global liquidity rather than a segregated domestic product.New competitors are entering the space simultaneously, adding pressure from multiple directions.

Prophet, an AI-native prediction market platform, launched its first live trading tranche last week with a system where an AI model acts as the counterparty using real capital. MoonPay debuted an AI trading strategy tool for prediction markets earlier this week. The prediction market category that experienced meteoric growth during the 2024 elections is now attracting enough capital and developer attention that the two-platform dynamic between Polymarket and Kalshi is beginning to fragment into a more competitive multi-platform landscape. For Polymarket, the path back to volume leadership runs through resolving its US regulatory situation — without full liquidity integration, it will continue ceding ground to platforms that can offer American users a seamless experience.

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Kalshi growing 13% while Polymarket fell 8.9% is regulatory structure not product quality divergence

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$29.8B monthly volume and most people still haven't heard of these

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US liquidity siloed from global pool