Raoul Pal Calls This a Mid-Cycle Correction Not a Cycle Top and Points to Global M2 as the Reason

[cryptoenthusiast]

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has framed the current market environment as a mid-cycle correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market, pointing to a combination of macro indicators that he argues support continuation of the broader cycle rather than its end. Global M2 money supply is at all-time highs. The US dollar is weakening. ISM readings are improving. US liquidity conditions are turning upward. Taken together, Pal argues these are the characteristics of a market pause within an ongoing expansion rather than the early stages of a sustained reversal. His conclusion is direct: this is not the end of the cycle.

The sentiment data Pal leans on most heavily is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which spent its longest recorded stretch below 10 during the recent downturn. Extreme fear readings of that duration and depth have historically been reversal setups rather than confirmation of continued decline, because they reflect maximum pessimism rather than rational forward-looking assessment. Pal treats the extended extreme fear reading as a signal that sentiment has overshot the underlying macro reality, creating the conditions for a snapback when liquidity expansion becomes visible enough to shift positioning. His framework aligns closely with Lee's positioning argument from a different analytical angle: both are identifying a setup where the majority of participants have already moved to bearish positioning, and where the path of least resistance from that starting point has historically been higher rather than lower.

[chainsniff]

Fear and Greed below 10 for the longest recorded stretch and Raoul Pal says buy is the trade that works until it does not and there is no way to know in advance.