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Strategy Is on Track for 1.2 Million Bitcoin by End of 2026 — But the Risks Are Growing
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End-of-year projections for Strategy's corporate BTC treasury. Source: Adam LivingstonBitcoin advocate and Strategy investor Adam Livingston has projected that the company is on track to accumulate a total of 1.2 million BTC by the end of 2026, fueled by capital raised through its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock — a yield-producing credit instrument that gives Strategy a mechanism to keep buying Bitcoin without selling existing holdings. Livingston went further, suggesting that this mechanism alone could drive Bitcoin's price to $1 million over time as Strategy absorbs an ever-larger share of available supply. If the projection holds, Strategy would control more than 5% of Bitcoin's total capped supply of 21 million coins.
Not everyone shares that optimism about the underlying financial structure. Seeking Alpha analyst Rida Morwa warned last week that Strategy is issuing preferred equity at an unsustainable pace, with its plan depending on either continued equity issuance or asset sales to fund dividend obligations. Morwa's concern is straightforward: the model works beautifully if Bitcoin keeps rising, but becomes dangerously circular if prices stall or decline. Strategy already recorded a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in Q1 2026 after BTC dropped sharply from its all-time high — a reminder that the company's balance sheet is entirely exposed to Bitcoin's price trajectory with no meaningful hedge in place.
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End-of-year projections for Strategy's corporate BTC treasury. Source: Adam LivingstonBitcoin advocate and Strategy investor Adam Livingston has projected that the company is on track to accumulate a total of 1.2 million BTC by the end of 2026, fueled by capital raised through its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock — a yield-producing credit instrument that gives Strategy a mechanism to keep buying Bitcoin without selling existing holdings. Livingston went further, suggesting that this mechanism alone could drive Bitcoin's price to $1 million over time as Strategy absorbs an ever-larger share of available supply. If the projection holds, Strategy would control more than 5% of Bitcoin's total capped supply of 21 million coins.
Not everyone shares that optimism about the underlying financial structure. Seeking Alpha analyst Rida Morwa warned last week that Strategy is issuing preferred equity at an unsustainable pace, with its plan depending on either continued equity issuance or asset sales to fund dividend obligations. Morwa's concern is straightforward: the model works beautifully if Bitcoin keeps rising, but becomes dangerously circular if prices stall or decline. Strategy already recorded a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in Q1 2026 after BTC dropped sharply from its all-time high — a reminder that the company's balance sheet is entirely exposed to Bitcoin's price trajectory with no meaningful hedge in place.
