Odds of Sam Bankman-Fried Pardon Continue to Decline

[etfs]

The chances of Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon in 2026 remain low, with prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi placing the odds below 12%. Recent developments, including a public interview by his parents, have done little to improve expectations.

Despite ongoing appeals and public arguments challenging his conviction, market sentiment suggests skepticism remains high. For now, traders appear unconvinced that a pardon is likely in the near future.

[madtrader]

below 12% chance and people still betting on it, respect the optimism