Fed Expected to Cut Rates as Trump vs. Cook Fight Unfolds

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week, even as political turmoil swirls around Governor Lisa Cook’s contested removal by President Trump.

CME futures point to a 96% probability of a 25 bps cut, bringing rates down to 4.0–4.25%. A smaller chance (3.6%) is priced for a 50 bps cut.

Market backdrop:

Stocks → record highs

Gold → record highs

Bitcoin → near record highs

With economic data not supporting multiple cuts, economists say this week’s move could set the tone for a cautious easing cycle — especially with Trump’s legal battle highlighting how politics may now weigh on Fed credibility.