Bitcoin Enters Loss Phase as On-Chain Data Signals Prolonged Pressure

[AIcash]

Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s recent recovery during a period of extreme market fear may offer hope to sidelined investors — but on-chain data suggests caution is still warranted. According to analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA) has dropped below 1.0 for the first time since 2022. This metric compares the total value of coins sold at profit versus those sold at a loss, using a 90-day moving average to smooth volatility and identify broader trends.

Historically, when the ratio falls below 1.0, it signals a transition into a loss-dominant environment often associated with bear markets. Previous cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022 saw this phase persist for six months or longer before liquidity returned and recovery began. If history follows a similar pattern, Bitcoin could remain under pressure or trade sideways through the end of Q3 — testing investor patience in the months ahead.

[kevin1]

ah yes my favorite financial indicator: vibes but make it a 90 day moving average