Bitcoin Is in the Wave 3 of the Bear Cycle

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Bitcoin Bear Market Comparison (2021–2022 vs 2025–2026)

Based on structural similarity with the 2021–2022 bear market, Bitcoin in 2026 is most likely positioned in Wave 3-3 of the Elliott Wave bear cycle.

After the cycle top, Bitcoin completed:
• Wave 1: Initial breakdown
• Wave 2: Bear market rally within a rising corrective channel

That channel has now failed, marking the start of Wave 3, the main bear market leg.

Wave 3-3 is typically the most aggressive phase:
• Fast downside acceleration
• Rising volatility and volume
• Rapid failure of support levels

This suggests the market is not at the bottom. Historically, the true bear market low forms only after Wave 5, not during Wave 3.

Any near-term rebound should be viewed as a counter-trend bounce, not a trend reversal.