A $50K Lesson: When Conviction Meets the Clock

[nihalsari]

Ether is down 2.18% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Crypto executive Kain Warwick is set to pay $50,000 after losing a high-profile wager that Ethereum would hit $25,000 by the end of 2025. Ether closed the year near $3,000 after a volatile stretch that included a marketwide liquidation in October, underscoring how timing can matter as much as thesis in crypto markets.

The bet, struck at 10:1 odds against Kyle Samani, reflected optimism around institutional adoption and tokenization—but the recovery proved slower than expected. Warwick later joked that ETH still rose meaningfully from the bet’s start, just not nearly enough to clear an eight-fold hurdle before year-end.

[JanEmil]

The top guys in Crypto is also the most unrealistic.