Is the AI Trade Done for Now?
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Are the AI Trades Getting Tired?
AI has dominated market narratives for months — but some of the trend leaders are flashing fatigue signals.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Jumped on earnings (July 31) but couldn’t hold the highs. It’s been making lower highs since, and just broke the bottom of its triangle. Closed under the 21-day EMA for the first time since April. MACD rolling over too = short-term trend may be shifting negative.Palantir (PLTR)
Classic “gap-and-fade.” Shot to new highs on big news… only to give it all back. Now it’s lower than the breakout day.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Doubled since March, but weekly chart says stalling. $187.28 (April 2024 peak) acting like a ceiling.Options Heat
MSFT, PLTR, and AMD remain among the most active underliers in the options market — perfect battlegrounds for calls & puts depending on your read of the trend.Takeaway: AI names aren’t dead — but momentum is clearly pausing. For active traders, this is when risk/reward flips. Either you fade tired moves… or prepare for the next surprise squeeze.
What’s your play here — short the “AI exhaustion,” or load up before the next leg higher?
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Honestly looks like the AI trade is gassed out in the short term.
MSFT losing the 21-day EMA + MACD rollover is a textbook momentum shift. PLTR gave back its entire gap — that’s pure exhaustion. AMD can’t crack $187 = heavy ceiling.Options flow might stay hot, but to me that just means more ammo for downside if sentiment turns.
This feels like the part of the cycle where retail chases headlines, while smart money quietly loads up on puts. -
I see this more as a healthy reset than a top.
MSFT, PLTR, AMD have all run insane since March — a pause under resistance doesn’t kill the AI mega-trend.
Every time we’ve seen these “exhaustion” setups in 2023/24, they turned into springboards for the next breakout.Big money is still pouring into AI data centers + chips. Options heat shows traders want exposure both ways, but I’d rather fade the panic and scale in on dips.
AI isn’t done — it’s just catching its breath.