Bitcoin: Leaning Towards Bullish

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We're sitting at equilibrium ($89,619) with a clean higher low formation intact above both EMAs. The structure favors continuation, but the 64.9% rejection wick at $90,599 created a supply zone we need to respect. Volume is 68% below average—this is consolidation, not distribution.

1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY
   • Higher low formation holding above EMA20 ($88,584) and EMA50 ($88,436)
   • Bearish order block at $89,429-$90,617 acting as supply after aggressive rejection
   • Bullish order block at $86,795-$88,888 aligned with ascending trendline (4 touches, 127 bars validated)
   • Structure remains unbroken despite the upper wick—support at $89,200 held

2. THE INDICATORS ️

Bullish Signals:
• MACD crossover confirmed (476 vs 308) showing momentum build
• MFI at 75.5 indicates strong money flow
• ADX at 30.2 shows moderate directional conviction

Bearish Signals:
• RSI at 67.7 approaching overbought territory
• Volume 68% below average suggests caution on immediate breakout

The Conflict:
Low volume typically signals accumulation at these levels, not distribution. The question is whether we get one more shakeout to the demand zone before the next leg.

3. THE TRADE SETUP

🟢 Scenario A: Pullback Entry (Higher Probability)
• Trigger: Pullback to $89,200 or sweep to $86,795-$88,888 bullish OB
• Entry: $86,795-$88,888 demand zone (confluence with ascending trendline at $84,546)
• Target 1: $90,363 (immediate resistance)
• Target 2: $91,066 (premium zone entry)
• Target 3: $94,555 (weak high sweep)
• Stop: Below $86,700

🟢 Scenario B: Breakout Acceleration
• Trigger: Clean 4H close above $91,066 with volume confirmation
• Entry: Flip of $91,066 to support (CHoCH bullish)
• Target: $94,555
• Invalidation: 4H close below $86,795 (breaks bullish OB and trendline)

MY VERDICT
This is a 7/10 setup that favors patience. The structure is intact, indicators are aligned, but volume concerns and the overhead supply zone keep it from being perfect. If you're positioned, stop below $86,700. If you're waiting, the pullback to demand is your entry.