CRYPTO: ETH/BTC (1D)

[johnblockbuster]

ETH/BTC Elliott Wave Outlook: Is More Downside Ahead for Altcoins?

The ETH/BTC pair continues to sit at a critical juncture, and the broader altcoin market is watching closely. Using an Elliott Wave framework, the current structure suggests that both bullish continuation and a deeper corrective leg remain possible — but the next move depends heavily on how price behaves at the present support zone.

Current Structure: Wave (4) or Something Deeper?

Based on the chart, ETH/BTC completed a strong impulsive rally into what appears to be Wave (3), followed by a prolonged corrective structure labeled W–Y, which forms the basis of Wave (4).

Price is currently consolidating inside a key support zone — an area that aligns with the 0.618 retracement of the prior major impulse. This is typically a high-probability region for a Wave (4) low to form. But so far, buyers have not shown strong dominance, and price remains under a descending resistance trendline.

Scenario 1: Support Holds → Wave (5) Rally

If ETH/BTC holds the shaded support block, we may see the next leg higher — Wave (5).
This would likely result in:

A breakout above the descending trendline

A move toward the Fibonacci extensions shown on the chart

Altcoins gaining relative strength against Bitcoin

Wave (5) targets typically project toward the 0.236–0.382 extension, aligning with the higher levels drawn on your chart. This would favor a strong ETH recovery relative to BTC into early 2026.

Scenario 2: Support Breaks → More Downside First

However, a break below this structure — especially a move beneath the previous swing low — would invalidate the bullish Wave (4) interpretation.

If that happens:

ETH/BTC enters a deeper corrective phase

Altcoins (especially ETH) may continue underperforming

Price could drop toward the deeper 0.618 Fibonacci zone

The "invalidations" level becomes a critical marker

This deeper decline would likely be the final washout before a much larger upside reversal — essentially completing the correction before a true macro impulsive wave begins.

So, Are We Expecting More Downside for Alts?

Yes — more downside is still possible, but not guaranteed.

The market is sitting at a decision point:

Hold support → Begin Wave (5) upward

Break support → One more significant drop before recovery

Until the current range resolves, ETH/BTC remains neutral-to-cautiously-bearish, with structural bullish potential still intact as long as the key invalidation level holds.