EUR/USD – H4 Wedge Pattern | Dollar Weakness & Fed Cut Bets

[kevin1]

🧠 Setup Overview:
EUR/USD is forming a falling wedge pattern on the H4 chart — a potential bullish reversal structure after weeks of downside pressure. The pair is testing the upper wedge trendline, suggesting a possible breakout, but confirmation is still pending.

EURUSD

Trading Plan: Bullish Scenario:

🟢Watch for a confirmed breakout above the wedge and cloud resistance zone.
🟢If confirmed, expect a move toward 1.1730 (1st Resistance) and 1.1800 (2nd Resistance).

️ Technical Levels:
🟢 1st Resistance: 1.1732
🟢 2nd Resistance: 1.1804
Support Zone: 1.1500 – 1.1470

🧩 Fundamental Updates (Today – 9 Nov 2025):
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields slipped slightly as surveys showed weaker consumer confidence, softening the dollar’s tone.

2️⃣ Fed rate cut expectations increased — markets now price a 66% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, according to CME FedWatch.

3️⃣ Government funding worries: renewed concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown weighed on sentiment and limited USD demand.

These factors combined create short-term bearish pressure on USD, which may fuel a EUR/USD rebound if momentum sustains above the wedge.

[Abdul Khan]

Market’s clearly pricing in a dovish Fed — euro could gain short-term momentum.

[Rimon Khan]

If the wedge breaks upside, 1.0950 looks like the next key target.