Bitcoin - 50% crash is starting! (2017 trendline, huge warning)

[mendez]

Bitcoin is in the final stage of the bullish cycle, and we want to look for the best price to sell and prepare for the 2025/2026 bear market! The best price to sell Bitcoin is at the 1.618 FIB extension or at the main long-term 2017-2021-2025 trendline. This is exactly at 122,069, as we can see on the chart. And 2 weeks ago, Bitcoin hit both the Fibonacci level and trendline! So this is a strong sell signal.

Buying Bitcoin at the tipity top of a bullish cycle is not the best idea, because we will see 60,000 USD per Bitcoin in 2026! From the Elliott Wave perspective, there is probably only 1 high-probability scenario, and it's this ending diagonal pattern (rising wedge). I think we will see a final 2 waves on Bitcoin to form an ending diagonal wedge pattern (1-2-3-4-5). Bitcoin just finished wave 5 and is starting a brand new corrective pattern.

But you can be more conservative and wait for more confirmations, such as a break of the 50-week moving average. Waiting for such confirmations in general gives us a higher chance of success but a lower risk-to-reward ratio; in other words, you can't catch the top. I always recommend using simple moving averages with 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods because this is what the big players are using as well. These MAs are very popular among giant institutions, banks, and investors.

What's more, Bitcoin seasonality is telling us that August and September are the most bearish months for Bitcoin statistically. So you probably want to sell before a sell-off kicks in.

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!

[Maxwell]

Great breakdown! I’ve been watching that 1.618 Fibonacci level closely too ,crazy how perfectly it lined up. Could you take a look at $AVAX next? Curious how it's positioned heading into the bear market.

[rafihasan]

Totally agree.. August and September always feel like trap months for BTC. Love your take on the ending diagonal. Can you do an analysis on $LINK when you get a chance? Much appreciated!

[Nahiar806]

This is the kind of perspective more traders need to hear .. it's not just about FOMO buys. That 50-week MA break would definitely seal the deal for me. Any thoughts on $SOL? Seems strong but I’m cautious.

[Dave]

Appreciate the deep breakdown Mendez shared here
The technicals and cycle timing feel very in tune with what I’ve been sensing lately
That 1.618 FIB lining up with trendline resistance is no joke
Much respect for not just hyping but offering caution backed by real analysis

[Smith]

This kind of clarity is rare in crypto spaces
Mendez lays out a solid case without hype or fearmongering
Timing a top is never easy but when cycles and patterns converge like this
It's worth paying attention
Dropping my alt soon for that TA

[Jibon_RX]

Big thanks to Mendez for sharing such thoughtful insights
Not everyone is talking about the importance of moving averages and seasonality in this detail
Love how it's both technical and practical
August and September always make me cautious so this really hit home