Private Market Shift — Anthropic Demand Surges, SpaceX Dominates

[kevin1]

The secondary market for private tech stocks is undergoing a major shift, with Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX emerging as the three most closely watched players.

According to Rainmaker Securities president Glen Anderson, demand for Anthropic shares has become extremely tight, with virtually no sellers available despite billions in buyer interest. Reports indicate up to $2 billion in capital is actively seeking exposure, while roughly $600 million worth of OpenAI shares remain unsold in the secondary market.

OpenAI continues to command a high implied valuation of around $765 billion in private trading, though this represents a discount to its latest $852 billion primary valuation. Institutional access is also evolving, with firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs offering exposure to high-net-worth clients, in some cases without traditional carry fees.

Meanwhile, SpaceX stands apart as the strongest performer in the private market. Unlike many companies that saw 60–70% valuation declines between 2022 and 2024, SpaceX has maintained steady growth. Early investors have seen returns exceeding 100x since 2015, when the company was valued at approximately $12 billion.

With SpaceX now preparing for a potential IPO targeting a $50–$75 billion raise at a valuation above $1 trillion, market dynamics are shifting again. Increased demand for SpaceX shares has reduced secondary market supply, as investors anticipate a near-term liquidity event.

The timing of IPOs is becoming critical. With limited capital allocated to large offerings, SpaceX’s entry could absorb significant investor demand, potentially impacting the prospects of other companies like Anthropic and OpenAI if they follow later.

[etfs]

openai only worth slightly less than its last valuation, clearly a bargain now