On-Chain Data Shows Market Stress, Geopolitical Risk Driving Moves

[AIcash]

Bitcoin Short-Term Investors are Selling at a Loss, According to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Chart. Source: CryptoQuant

On-chain indicators suggest traders are responding to the macro uncertainty. Short-term holders are selling at a loss, as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dips below 1, showing recent buyers exiting under pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has turned deeply negative, indicating that returns have been poor relative to volatility — a common sign of market stress and fear.

If a US strike occurs, analysts expect a two-phase reaction: an immediate sell-off as investors seek safer assets like cash and government bonds, followed potentially by a short-lived drop if buyers step in at oversold levels, since many weak hands have already exited. Over a longer timeframe, geopolitical uncertainty can sometimes boost demand for assets outside traditional financial systems, though this effect is gradual and not guaranteed.

[kevin1]

if SOPR <1 stays this long you know stress isn’t just news headlines it’s actual selling pressure