Tilray Soars on Trump Policy Shift: Buy or Sell?

[cryptobro]

Tilray (TLRY) shares jumped 30% following major political news. President Donald Trump announced plans to reclassify cannabis as a Schedule III drug. Additionally, a new pilot program may allow seniors to buy cannabis through Medicare. The stock has now doubled since its December lows. This analysis breaks down why this matters for your portfolio across key sectors.

Geopolitics and Strategy: The Policy Pivot
The U.S. government is changing its strategic stance on cannabis. President Trump’s potential executive order signals a massive shift in federal law. Moving cannabis to "Schedule III" lowers its legal severity. This aligns the U.S. with other progressive nations. For Tilray, this removes the constant fear of federal prosecution. It creates a safer environment for institutional investors to enter the market.

Economics: Tax and Banking Freedom
Reclassification solves two major economic problems for Tilray. Currently, cannabis companies pay extremely high taxes because of "Section 280E." This rule prevents them from deducting normal business expenses. Schedule III status removes this burden. It instantly improves cash flow and profitability. Furthermore, it opens access to traditional banking services, reducing the cost of doing business.

Business Models: The Senior Market
The proposed Medicare pilot program is a game-changer. It allows the government to subsidize cannabis for seniors. This creates a stable, guaranteed revenue stream for Tilray. Seniors often use these products for pain relief and health. This shifts the business model from recreational use to "medical necessity." A government-backed customer base is highly reliable and lucrative.

Science and Innovation: Research Growth
Strict laws previously blocked scientific research. Reclassification makes Research and Development (R&D) much easier. Tilray can now study cannabis compounds more freely. This accelerates the creation of new medical products. Patent analysis suggests this will lead to proprietary formulas. Owning exclusive medical patents creates a "moat" that protects Tilray from competitors.

Market Data: What Traders Are Betting
Options traders expect huge volatility. Data shows traders are pricing in a 50% move by March 2026. The target price in this bullish scenario is $21.22. This means investors are willing to bet money that the stock will rise significantly. Sentiment is aggressive and optimistic.

Technical Analysis: The Trend is Up
The stock chart confirms the positive news. Tilray is trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. These are key lines that determine the trend direction. When the price is above them, the trend is "Bullish" (upward). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, showing the rally has room to grow.

Conclusion: Wall Street’s Verdict
Analysts rate Tilray as a "Moderate Buy." Price targets reach as high as $25, suggesting a potential 75% gain. The combination of tax relief, new senior customers, and technical momentum makes a strong case. However, the move depends on the Executive Order becoming law. Investors should watch for official confirmation from the White House.

[Abdul Khan]

Policy-driven moves can be fast but also short-lived.

[Nahid Hossen]

Risk management matters more than chasing headlines.

[Nahid Hossen]

A $200B projection signals massive expectations for growth.