Futures vs Spot: Diverging Signals

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Right after the FOMC announcement, Bitcoin futures open interest surged, showing leveraged traders positioning for volatility. However, the spot market tells a different story—aggregate spot volumes keep declining even as futures activity spikes.

This divergence highlights that the current price action is being driven more by leveraged bets than genuine spot demand. Without stronger spot participation, the sustainability of BTC’s moves remains uncertain, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp swings if positions unwind.