The end of Bitcoin…. begins in 40 days time @ ~$160k in Oct 2025

[cryptoenthusiast]

** What the next 12 months will look like **

Let’s just start with a strong provocative title to raise the blood pressure.. “The end of Bitcoin”

…. with an explosion and then a slow erosion of relevance, that’s how.

Whether it withers through regulation, succumbs to its own technological limits, or is simply eclipsed by something faster, greener, and more useful, the end of Bitcoin will be a quiet fading of a once radical idea into the background hum of history over the next 12 years.

Can already feel the calls for his head. Take a breath, unclinch your fits, consider the possibility for a moment.

For years Bitcoin stood as a monument to a digital rebellion, a currency without borders or masters promising freedom from central banks and governments alike. Yet the freedom that was marvelled on Bitcoin’s launch was equally celebrated on its loss the day the ETF was active. A currency available to all they chanted, now controlled by the few. The irony.

Diminishing returns
The bitcoin Halving cycles are a great place to start on the story of “How Bitcoin ends”. Bitcoin maximalists will themselves acknowledge this technical observation, post cycle returns are not only diminishing but on the road to disappear forever. It is the reason we've seen 2010-2012 wallets unload on the market those past 2 months. They know.

On the above 2 week chart it is fairly evident the momentum of each cycle is losing steam as the line of support rotates another hour of the clock face for every two cycles. The next halving cycle will complete at 3 o’clock with no measurable return from the 2025 cycle top. Consider that as the talking heads call for $1m+ by 2030.

The influencers and 40 days
Have you noticed influencers talk about the amazing things quarter 4 will bring? “October through December to mint millionaires!” The cringe.

At the height of every market top we see the same smoke and mirrors, “New paradigm” shift mantra. Every other day a new News article on crypto, ft.com is full of them. All red flags as the market top grows closer. Although euphoria is still to return, the time until the top is deterministic.

There’s never been a market top post halving (vertical blue lines) greater than 546 days (vertical orange lines). This value also includes the +/- 5 days price trades at the peak. The last two cycles (2017 and 2021) took 526 days to reach the peak. 2021 gave traders an additional 20 days to exit at the peak. Few accepted while the rest signed up for the 2 year bag holding challenge.

The market top is now between September 28th to October 20th, at most 40 days away from today, if you’re reading this on September 10th, 2025. Yes, perhaps this time will be different, however there’s now 3 out of 4 cycles with less than 546 days (at max) until the cycle top, and the Bitcoin bull market is approaching that value fast. Is this time really going to be different? Influencers certainly think so.

PS: Notice the monthly reduction in market peaks? 2017 = December, 2021 = November, 2025 = October!

40 days / October 20th to $160k - Seriously?
Historical halving to market peaks

2012 Halving: +9,300% to $1,150 in November 2013

2016 Halving: +2,930% to $19,700 in December 2017

2020 Halving: +702% to $69,000 in November 2021

Lower limit
*** 2024 Halving: +160% to $160k in October 2025 ***
Upper limt
*** 2024 Halving: +180% to $180k in October 2025 ***

There’s a whole host of reasons or should I say confluence for this price action forecast too numerous to go into detail. However here’s a couple of standout reasons:

Reason 1
Each new cycle’s return is roughly ~25–30% of the prior cycle’s return. This means the halving to peak return is compressing by a fairly consistent factor in each cycle, close to a “quartering” effect. For this reason the 2025 market top falls between $160k to $180k.

It would also mean the end of Bitcoin as the next cycle peak would be a macro lower high. Consider a cycle 5 (2028 halving) with ~25% of Cycle 4’s return: 25% × 170% ≈ 40–45% return from the 2028 halving to its peak.

A market correction beginning in October 2025 for a new bear market would not be over until the $40-50k area. A 40% return in cycle 5 peaks out at $70k after the 2028 halving, a macro lower high! Remember talking heads are calling for $1m and beyond 2 years later.

If that becomes true, Bitcoin has entered a confirmed macro multi year bear market. A bear market just as long as the bull market from 2010. Such a bear market would not see price action arrested until around $6k in 2039! A long way from Michael Saylor’s $13 million per coin in 2045.

Welcome to the Ponzi scheme.

Reason 2
The Fibonacci 1.618 extension has been an excellent marker for the cycle top, as were previous extensions in previous cycle tops. The market will always react to Fibonacci extensions regardless. Even if you believe Bitcoin will continue to print higher highs and 2026 is going to a very green year for price action.. you must accept price action will react strongly with those extensions, it always has.

But there’s more…. the 1.618 extension for this cycle shares confluence with point number 1. Yes, the quarterly reduction in return forecast of 160% for this Halving is also the 1.618. Dazzled? You should be!

There are many other studies for considering this level as the market top, which is discussed elsewhere.

Conclusions
If history continues to rhyme, the next 40 days may mark not only the top of this cycle, but also the start of Bitcoin’s long fade into irrelevance. A projected move to the $160k–$180k range would appear spectacular on headlines, yet within the broader arc of Bitcoin’s halving mechanics, it represents nothing more than the final gasp of exponential returns before the math itself runs out of road.

Each halving cycle has delivered progressively weaker gains, compressing the dream from life-changing multiples to mere percentages. At this trajectory, the next cycle risks producing a macro lower high, the first true sign of a terminal bear market. Beyond that lies the possibility of decades-long decline, where the legend of “digital gold” becomes just another case study in market psychology and technological obsolescence.

The irony is inescapable: what was once celebrated as unshackled freedom from centralised control now trades under the thumb of ETFs, influencers, and institutional flows. The rebellion has been monetised, the revolution syndicated. If October 2025 plays out as expected, we will look back not at the rise of Bitcoin to a million dollars per coin, but at its slow descent into being just another ticker on the screen, remembered more for what it symbolised than for what it ever achieved.