Bitcoin: The Calm Before...

[madmax]

We're at $80,252 watching one of those classic market contradictions that separates disciplined traders from emotional ones. Weekly RSI at 18.7 is screaming "bottom," but the structure is screaming something else entirely. Here's how to think three moves ahead instead of reacting to the noise.

1. THE TECHNICAL REALITY
   • Price rejected violently from $84,599 with a 37.5% upper wick, sellers defended the bearish order block ($97,932-$90,066) with serious intent
   • Trading in PREMIUM zone (Smart Money Concepts) where institutions typically sell, not buy
   • Lower high formation confirms bearish structure is taking control despite "bullish" swing trend label
   • MACD deeply bearish at -5,482, price below EMA20 ($95,230) and EMA50 ($96,374)

2. THE INDICATORS ️

Bearish Signals:
• ADX at 48.1 = strong downtrend conviction (trends with this strength don't just roll over)
• MACD at -5,482 showing deep bearish momentum
• Bearish FVG between $98,888-$96,012 remains unfilled (magnet for any relief rally)
• MFI at 35.6 showing weak money flow

Bullish Signals:
• RSI at 18.7 and Stochastic at 0.5 = extreme weekly oversold readings
• Still above EMA200 at $68,515 on macro view
• Volume at average levels ($987,996) = no panic capitulation yet

The Conflict:
Extreme oversold readings create the possibility of reversal, but structure must confirm first. Right now, structure remains bearish. Strong trends don't reverse just because an indicator hits an extreme, they need structural breaks.

3. THE TRADE SETUP

Scenario A: Continuation Lower (Primary)
• Trigger: Continued rejection from $80,000-$84,000 zone, failure to reclaim $97,932
• Entry: Confirmed rejection at bearish OB with stop above $97,932
• Target 1: $74,457 (7.2% downside) - top of bullish order block, last major defense
• Target 2: $68,587 (15% downside) - high volume node from accumulation zone
• Extended Targets: $65,157 and $61,728 if $74,457 breaks on 4H close

🟢 Scenario B: Structural Reversal (Alternative)
• Trigger: $74,457 tested with volume showing accumulation signs
• Entry: Bounce confirmation from $74,457 support zone
• Stop: Below $70,000
• Invalidation: 4H close above $97,932 (reclaims bearish OB, flips structure bullish)

MY VERDICT
Risk-reward favors waiting. The meta-game here is recognizing that extreme oversold on weekly doesn't mean immediate reversal, it means reversal becomes possible IF structure confirms. Until $74,457 is tested or $97,932 is reclaimed, path of least resistance remains down. Confidence: 72% bearish.