AI Job Panic vs. Reality: What the Data Actually Shows
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Despite Nadella’s optimism, fear around AI-driven unemployment continues to grow. Dario Amodei of Anthropic has warned that AI could eliminate up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years, pushing unemployment as high as 20%. Those warnings have fueled anxiety across creative and technical industries alike.
But research paints a more nuanced picture. MIT Project Iceberg estimates that AI can currently handle about 11.7% of paid labor—not entire jobs, but portions of them. Tasks like paperwork automation or code assistance are being offloaded, while skilled workers who know how to use AI effectively are often becoming more productive, not obsolete.