Cowen pointed out that earlier Bitcoin cycles topped around 1,059 and 1,168 days after their prior lows, while the current cycle peaked on day 1,162. He argues that narratives surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury buying, and strategic reserves are not enough to invalidate the broader cyclical structure that has repeated for over a decade.

The analyst now expects the next major Bitcoin bottom to arrive sometime in Q4 2026, potentially near October, aligning with previous bear market lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Even if Bitcoin avoids a full collapse, Cowen believes another significant correction toward lower support levels remains likely before a sustainable new bull cycle begins.