A CoinGecko study covering 4,753 daily Bitcoin price observations from May 2013 to May 2026 found that US federal holidays produce significantly stronger next-day returns than regular trading days. On average, the day following a US holiday delivered a return of 0.77%, roughly four times the 0.19% baseline seen on non-holiday days. The pattern held consistently across a wide range of Bitcoin price levels, from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, suggesting the effect is not tied to any particular market cycle but reflects something more structural about how capital flows around holiday periods.
New Year's Day stands out as the strongest performer, producing an average next-day return of 2.01% with an 84.6% win rate across the study period. Columbus Day matched that win rate with a 1.70% average return, while Christmas Day and Labor Day also showed positive signals at 1.46% and 1.22% respectively. Researchers attribute the New Year's Day strength to a combination of fresh January capital allocations and the reversal of December tax-loss selling, as investors who sold positions for tax purposes at year-end re-enter the market once the calendar turns. The consistency of these returns across more than a decade of wildly different market conditions makes the pattern difficult to dismiss as coincidence.