Options data shows only a 25% probability of BTC reaching $84,000 by the end of May. Traders are still paying a premium for downside protection, with put options dominating—typically a sign of cautious or hedged positioning. At the same time, the futures basis rate remains below the normal 4–8% range, indicating weak demand for leveraged long positions.

What this means:
Even with bullish price momentum, professional traders are not aggressively betting on further upside. For a breakout above $84K, sentiment in derivatives markets likely needs to shift alongside spot demand.