A key on-chain signal suggests the market may not have reached a true bottom. The gap between short-term and long-term holder cost bases — currently over $35,000 — has historically needed to close before a new bull cycle begins. Right now, short-term holders still sit significantly above long-term holders, meaning the usual “capitulation phase” may not be complete.

In past cycles, this crossover marked the moment weak hands exited and long-term investors took control. That reset hasn’t happened yet. Until it does, the data implies there could still be room for further downside before a sustainable uptrend can begin.