Prediction markets were built on the idea of “crowd wisdom” — that prices reflect real-world probabilities. But recent incidents suggest something else might be happening, where well-informed insiders or coordinated traders can influence outcomes and profit before events unfold.

With new restrictions and increasing legal pressure, the industry is at a turning point. The real challenge isn’t just regulation — it’s proving that these markets are fair, transparent, and not quietly shaped by those with an informational edge.