An analysis from economist Timothy Peterson suggests Bitcoin could end the year higher than its current price. Peterson noted that 50% of the past 24 months delivered positive returns for Bitcoin — a statistic he uses to identify potential market inflection points. Based on that historical pattern, he calculates an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be trading higher ten months from now, placing the projected timeline around late December.

Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month since 2013, averaging a 41% return, according to CoinGlass. While prediction market Polymarket currently gives December only a 17% chance of being 2026’s best month, Peterson’s data-driven approach suggests broader historical momentum could favor a year-end rebound.