Not necessarily. While many traders believe extreme fear signals a bottom, investment analyst Nic Puckrin argues the data tells a more nuanced story. His research suggests that when the Fear & Greed Index falls below 25, the average 90-day forward return for Bitcoin has historically been just 2.4%.

Surprisingly, periods labeled “Extreme Greed” have delivered far stronger 90-day returns — in some cases averaging as high as 95%. Puckrin describes the index as a backward-looking momentum gauge rather than a predictive tool. In his view, sustained bullish momentum — not peak pessimism — has historically aligned with stronger short-term gains.